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Forex: Dollar May Rise as 4Q GDP Upgrade Bolsters Fed Taper Outlook

Forex: Dollar May Rise as 4Q GDP Upgrade Bolsters Fed Taper Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar Rallies as Bond Auction Hints at Supportive RBNZ Policy Outlook
  • British Pound May Not Yield a Strong Response to a Slowdown in Retail Sales
  • US Dollar May Find Support as 4Q GDP Upgrade Bolsters Fed Taper Bets

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The rally appeared to be catalyzed by the outcome of a bond auction, where the government sold NZ$200 million in 3 percent coupon bonds maturing in 2020. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, fell to 2.84 compared with 5.05 at an auction of analogous paper in February.

The RBNZ raised interest rates in the interim and signaled further tightening is ahead. With that in mind, the drop in demand may suggest investors found the 3 percent coupon unattractive relative to where the benchmark rate is expected to move in the months ahead. This belies a resoundingly hawkish monetary policy outlook, which naturally bodes well for the Kiwi.

February’s UK Retail Sales report headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Receipts excluding automotive expenditures are expected to post a 2.9 percent year-on-year increase, marking the weakest result in three months. A soft print may not yield a lasting response from the British Pound however considering an analogous report from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) telegraphed such a scenario two weeks ago.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the third revision of four-quarter US GDP figures. Expectations point to an upgrade, with the annualized quarter-on-quarter reading pushed up to 2.7 percent from the prior estimate of 2.4 percent. Such an outcome may further erode doubts about Fed QE “taper” continuity and boost the yield attraction of the US Dollar, driving the benchmark currency upward.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (FEB)

818M

600M

286M

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (FEB)

649M

500M

264M

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (FEB)

4.56B

3.75B

3.78B

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (FEB)

3.74B

4.44B

4.07B

0:00

AUD

CBAHIA House Affordability (4Q)

74.7

-

75.1

1:30

CNY

Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (FEB)

9.4%

12.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

1.3%

1.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (FEB)

1.2%

1.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

-1.5%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto (YoY) (FEB)

2.9%

4.8%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales incl. Auto (YoY) (FEB)

2.4%

4.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales incl Auto (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

-1.5%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3693

1.3744

1.3763

1.3795

1.3814

1.3846

1.3897

GBP/USD

1.6389

1.6476

1.6529

1.6563

1.6616

1.6650

1.6737

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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