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Forex: Euro May Weaken on Soft PMIs, Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise

Forex: Euro May Weaken on Soft PMIs, Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise

2014-03-24 05:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Decline on Soft PMIs But Follow-Through Questionable
  • Japanese Yen Down as Asian Stocks Rise, Eroding Haven Demand
  • Australian Dollar Losses Prove Short-Lived After China PMI MIss

The preliminary set of March Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The region-wide composite index is expected to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth slowed for the first in four months. Signs of softer performance may drive speculation about deepening disinflation, fueling ECB stimulus expansion bets and weighing on the Euro. Follow-through may be limited however.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, with demand for the safety-linked currency undermined as Asian stocks advanced to start the week. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.9 percent in a move that appeared to reflect a catch-up rally from Japanese shares as they priced in Friday’s rally in other area markets while domestic exchanges remained shuttered for the Vernal Equinox holiday.

The Australian Dollar briefly spiked lower after the March Chinese Manufacturing PMI gauge form HSBC unexpectedly fell to 48.1 from a reading of 48.5 in February, falling short of forecasts calling for a print at 48.7. The move lower proved short-lived however, with the positive tone on the risk appetite front buying the sentiment-linked Aussie off session lows.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI (MAR P)

48.1

48.7

48.5

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (FEB)

1.5%

-

-0.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

French PMI Services (MAR P)

47.5

47.2

Low

8:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (MAR P)

49.6

49.7

Low

8:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (MAR P)

54.5

54.8

Medium

8:30

EUR

German PMI Services (MAR P)

55.5

55.9

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAR P)

53.1

53.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAR P)

53.0

52.6

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAR P)

52.6

53.3

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3700

1.3745

1.3769

1.3790

1.3814

1.3835

1.3880

GBP/USD

1.6404

1.6449

1.6468

1.6494

1.6513

1.6539

1.6584

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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