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Forex: Aussie Dollar Gains with Asian Stocks, Kocherlakota in Focus Ahead

Forex: Aussie Dollar Gains with Asian Stocks, Kocherlakota in Focus Ahead

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Outperforms as Asian Stocks Recover from Post-FOMC Selloff
  • Japanese Yen May Rise as FTSE 100 Stock Futures Hint at Risk Aversion Ahead
  • Comments from Fed’s Kocherlakota May Drive Volatility into the End of the Week

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency advanced alongside futures tracking Australia’s benchmark ASX/S&P 500 stock index, pointing to firming risk appetite as the catalyst behind the move. Asian shares corrected higher after a massive selloff yesterday that pushed the MSCI Asia Pacific regional composite equities gauge to yield its worst one-day drop since August. That move reflected a hawkish turn in Fed policy expectations in the wake of the FOMC policy meeting.

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours hints the consolidative mode noted in Asia is likely to continue. FTSE 100 stock index futures are pointing lower ahead of the opening bell however, warning that risk aversion may yet emerge into the end of the trading week. Such an outcome is likely to bode ill for risk-geared FX including the Aussie and New Zealand Dollars while boosting safety-geared alternatives, notably the Japanese Yen.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to a round of scheduled commentary from a range of Federal Reserve policy officials. A speech from Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota is likely to take top billing. Mr Kocherlakota was the only member of the rate-setting FOMC committee to dissent from the Fed’s latest decision, saying the somewhat more ambiguous language in the central bank’s forward guidance framework “weakens the credibility of [it’s] commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target [and] fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB)

3.7%

-

3.7%

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (FEB)

3470

-

3120

23:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (JAN)

0.2%

-

0.9%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR)

-0.8%

-

-2.1%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

132.0

-

133.0

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

-

1.0%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (FEB)

5.9%

-

9.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)

-

8.6%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (€) (JAN)

-

21.3B

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (JAN)

-

33.2B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (FEB)

-7.0B

-25.4B

Low

9:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (FEB)

-

-13.7B

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (£) (FEB)

8.6B

-4.7B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (FEB)

7.9B

-6.4B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3599

1.3695

1.3737

1.3791

1.3833

1.3887

1.3983

GBP/USD

1.6341

1.6429

1.6467

1.6517

1.6555

1.6605

1.6693

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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