News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.61% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.64% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.67% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/aXaVmNuUiR
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.41% FTSE 100: -0.48% US 500: -0.48% Wall Street: -0.78% France 40: -0.95% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ZthZd81b1n
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (15/JAN) due at 16:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -1.975M https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 EIA Distillate Stocks Change (15/JAN) due at 16:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.214M Previous: 4.786M https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • $WTI Crude fell to around 51.50, its lowest level in two weeks, before rebounding ahead of the US EIA report. $OIL $USO https://t.co/4Fw20MVVwz
  • A series of tweets from BitMEX Research over the possibility of a ‘double spend’ Bitcoin occurrence sent the largest cryptocurrency crashing back below $30,000 early today. Get your $btc market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/9S40otjMMN https://t.co/NEBRVUItmA
  • AstraZeneca informs EU of vaccine delivery issues $Bild
  • It seems that general economic health is not a top fundamental driver for $EURUSD considering that the US and Eurozone January PMIs are at contrasting extremes favoring US growth but the pair continues to edge in the Euro's favor https://t.co/fojeSkkdCM
  • $USDCAD has turned downward again after climbing from a low around 1.2610 yesterday to above 1.2700 this morning. The pair is now trading around 1.2685. $USD $CAD https://t.co/p6bPB4Jatw
  • The Senate Finance Committee unanimously approved Janet Yellen for Treasury secretary (26-0) and now it goes to the full Senate. Very likely to pass
Forex: Euro, US Dollar Volatility After ZEW and CPI Data May Be Muted

Forex: Euro, US Dollar Volatility After ZEW and CPI Data May Be Muted

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Not Find Volatility in Soft German ZEW Survey Data Set
  • US Dollar Might Shrug Off Soft Headline CPI on Stable Core Print
  • FX Markets to Struggle With Directional Conviction Before FOMC

The March edition of Germany’s ZEW Survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest the forward-looking Expectations index will fall for a third consecutive month to register at 52.0, the lowest since September 2013. Euro strength since the beginning of February has mirrored a shift away from expectations favoring expansion of ECB stimulus efforts in investors’ priced-in 12-month policy outlook (as tracked by Credit Swiss). It seems difficult to imagine that a softer sentiment reading will meaningfully derail this dynamic after yesterday’s downgrade of headline CPI – a far more direct indicator for monetary policy – failed to yield a response.

In fairness however, the single currency’s resilience might have been rooted in ebbing Crimea-linked jitters. If a soft ZEW print encourages the markets to turn their attention to economic fundamentals once again, the single currency’s performance since the start of the week may begin to appear unreasonable and trigger selling pressure. This seems like a long-shot however considering the ECB’s apparent determination to withhold accommodation despite the weakest price growth rate since late 2009. We continue to think Mario Draghi and company will have to push back against disinflation but the policy change is likely to wait until the completion of the central bank’s Asset Quality Review (AQR) in the second half of the year.

Later in the day, the spotlight will shift to February’s US CPI figures. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick lower to 1.2 percent after hitting a six-month high at 1.6 percent in January. Leading ISM data bolsters the probability of softer pricing trends last month. Importantly, the core CPI reading (which excludes the cost of volatile items like fuel and fresh food) is expected to remain unchanged at 1.6 percent. If that proves to be the case, a softer headline print may do relatively little to derail Fed “tapering” expectations and thereby hurt the US Dollar. In any case, traders may be reluctant to commit to a directional bias on the greenback before seeing the outcome of the FOMC policy meeting.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

RBA March Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

1:30

CNY

China February Property Prices

-

-

-

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F)

-

-

26.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

SECO March 2014 Economic Forecasts

-

-

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

-

-0.1%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

-

-1.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

EU 25 New Car Registrations (FEB)

-

5.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAR)

52.0

50.0

Medium

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (MAR)

52.0

55.7

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (MAR)

-

68.5

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (JAN)

13.9B

13.7B

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (€) (JAN)

-

13.9B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3778

1.3847

1.3885

1.3916

1.3954

1.3985

1.4054

GBP/USD

1.6514

1.6575

1.6606

1.6636

1.6667

1.6697

1.6758

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES