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Forex: Dollar May Rise on Fed-Speak, Chinese Data Shakes Asian Markets

Forex: Dollar May Rise on Fed-Speak, Chinese Data Shakes Asian Markets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Quiet European, US Economic Calendars Put Spotlight on “Fed-Speak”
  • US Dollar May Rise if Pro-Taper Evans Comments Follow NFP Report
  • Aussie Falls, Yen Gains as Chinese Exports Fall Most Since August 2009

A quiet economic data docket in European and US trading hours offers little in terms of market-moving event risk. On the official commentary front, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is due to come across the wires. While Mr Evans is not a member of the policy-setting FOMC committee this year, traders may be atypically responsive to any clues about the central bank’s thinking that he offers given the absence of other catalysts. Rhetoric supportive of continued “tapering” of QE asset purchases in the context of Friday’s upbeat US employment data may drive the US Dollar higher after prices found support near February’s lows.

The Australian Dollar underperformed to start the trading week in the wake of a dramatically disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures reported over the weekend. The plunge in exports was particularly dramatic, with overseas sales down -18.1% year-on-year to produce the largest drawdown since August 2009. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and the dismal data set fueled concerns that a slowdown in the former country will reverberate in the latter, undermining the probability that the RBA’s next move might be an interest rate hike after the current period of stability.The Japanese Yen traded higher as worrying cues from the world’s second-largest economy weighed on Asian shares and drove demand for the safe-haven currency.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2.0%

2.1%

2.5%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY)

-2.0%

-1.9%

-1.6%

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (4Q)

5.7%

-

1.3%

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (4Q)

6.3%

-

6.2%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)

-1589.0B

-1411.8B

-638.6B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)

-588.3B

-548.9B

68.6B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JAN)

-2345.4B

-2589.6B

-1047.4B

23:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized (4Q F)

0.7%

0.9%

1.0%

23:50

JPY

Nominal GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.4%

-

0.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.8%

-

1.3%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (FEB)

2.2%

2.4%

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)

2.4%

-

2.5%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB)

-

-

-7.49%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)

-

54.1

54.7

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)

-

50.5

49

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JAN)

-

2.3%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (FEB)

-

-2

Low

9:30

EUR

Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR)

14

13.3

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3755

1.3818

1.3846

1.3881

1.3909

1.3944

1.4007

GBP/USD

1.6577

1.6656

1.6685

1.6735

1.6764

1.6814

1.6893

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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