Talking Points:
- Quiet European, US Economic Calendars Put Spotlight on “Fed-Speak”
- US Dollar May Rise if Pro-Taper Evans Comments Follow NFP Report
- Aussie Falls, Yen Gains as Chinese Exports Fall Most Since August 2009
A quiet economic data docket in European and US trading hours offers little in terms of market-moving event risk. On the official commentary front, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is due to come across the wires. While Mr Evans is not a member of the policy-setting FOMC committee this year, traders may be atypically responsive to any clues about the central bank’s thinking that he offers given the absence of other catalysts. Rhetoric supportive of continued “tapering” of QE asset purchases in the context of Friday’s upbeat US employment data may drive the US Dollar higher after prices found support near February’s lows.
The Australian Dollar underperformed to start the trading week in the wake of a dramatically disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures reported over the weekend. The plunge in exports was particularly dramatic, with overseas sales down -18.1% year-on-year to produce the largest drawdown since August 2009. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and the dismal data set fueled concerns that a slowdown in the former country will reverberate in the latter, undermining the probability that the RBA’s next move might be an interest rate hike after the current period of stability.The Japanese Yen traded higher as worrying cues from the world’s second-largest economy weighed on Asian shares and drove demand for the safe-haven currency.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
1:30 |
CNY |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.1% |
2.5% |
|
1:30 |
CNY |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
-2.0% |
-1.9% |
-1.6% |
|
21:45 |
Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (4Q) |
5.7% |
- |
1.3% |
|
|
21:45 |
NZD |
Manufacturing Activity (4Q) |
6.3% |
- |
6.2% |
|
23:50 |
Current Account Total (¥) (JAN) |
-1589.0B |
-1411.8B |
-638.6B |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JAN) |
-588.3B |
-548.9B |
68.6B |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JAN) |
-2345.4B |
-2589.6B |
-1047.4B |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
GDP (QoQ) (4Q F) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
GDP Annualized (4Q F) |
0.7% |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Nominal GDP (QoQ) (4Q F) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (4Q F) |
0.4% |
- |
0.5% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (4Q F) |
0.8% |
- |
1.3% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
GDP Deflator (YoY) (4Q F) |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (FEB) |
2.2% |
2.4% |
2.3% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB) |
2.4% |
- |
2.5% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB) |
- |
- |
-7.49% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB) |
- |
54.1 |
54.7 |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB) |
- |
50.5 |
49 |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
8:15 |
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JAN) |
- |
2.3% |
Medium |
|
|
9:30 |
Lloyds Employment Confidence (FEB) |
- |
-2 |
Low |
|
|
9:30 |
Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR) |
14 |
13.3 |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
1.3755 |
1.3818 |
1.3846 |
1.3881 |
1.3909 |
1.3944 |
1.4007 |
|
|
1.6577 |
1.6656 |
1.6685 |
1.6735 |
1.6764 |
1.6814 |
1.6893 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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