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Forex: US Dollar May Fall Further if Retail Sales Data Disappoints

Forex: US Dollar May Fall Further if Retail Sales Data Disappoints

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Sold as Treasury Yields Sink Amid Risk Aversion
  • Soft US Retail Sales Data May Amplify Dollar Selling Pressure
  • Australian Dollar Down as Jobs Data Weighs on RBA Outlook

January’s US Retail Sales report headlines the economic calendar in the hours ahead. Expectations call for a flat result, an outcome that would represent the fourth consecutive month of slowing receipts growth and the softest single reading since March 2013. US economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-January. This suggests analysts continue to underestimate the slowdown in the recovery and opens for another disappointment.

The US Dollar is under pressure overnight, tracking US Treasury yields lower as a slump across Asian and European stock markets fuels safe-haven demand for bonds, sending prices higher. A soft US Retail Sales number against a backdrop a Federal Reserve committed to continue “tapering” QE asset purchases may amplify global growth concerns and fuel continued risk aversion. That threatens to continue eroding yield support for the greenback, pushing prices lower.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade after January’s Employment data showed the economy unexpectedly lost 3,700 in January. Forecasters were calling for a 15,000 increase before the data crossed the wires. The unemployment rate rose to 6 percent, the highest in over a decade. The weighed against monetary policy expectations, the “period of stability” discussed at last week’s RBA meeting will not soon give way to renewed interest rate hikes.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

Business NZ Perf of Manufacturing (JAN)

56.2

-

56.4

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (YoY) (JAN)

2.4%

2.4%

2.5%

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (MoM) (JAN)

0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

0:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB)

2.3%

-

2.3%

0:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (JAN)

53%

58%

56%

0:30

AUD

Employment Change (JAN)

-3.7K

15.0K

-23.0K

0:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (JAN)

6.0%

5.9%

5.8%

0:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (JAN)

-7.1K

-

-32.1K

0:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (JAN)

3.4K

-

9.1K

0:30

AUD

Participation Rate (JAN)

64.5%

64.6%

64.5%

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JAN)

6.1%

-

6.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN F)

1.2% (A)

1.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN F)

-0.7% (A)

-0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (JAN F)

-0.6% (A)

-0.6%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (JAN F)

1.3% (A)

1.3%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN)

0.0% (A)

0.0%

Low

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN)

-0.3% (A)

-0.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Monthly Report

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3421

1.3512

1.3552

1.3603

1.3643

1.3694

1.3785

GBP/USD

1.6193

1.6367

1.6481

1.6541

1.6655

1.6715

1.6889

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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