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Forex: Yen to Rise as Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Fall on Soft US Jobs Data

Forex: Yen to Rise as Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Fall on Soft US Jobs Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • FX Markets Treading Water in Europe as Traders Wait for US Jobs Data
  • Soft US News-flow vs. Expectations Opens the Door for Downside Surprise
  • Yen to Outperform as Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Sink on Soft Nonfarm Payrolls

Currency markets are in quiet consolidation mode in early European hours as traders await the release of January’s much-anticipated US Employment report. Expectations call for a 180,000 increase in Nonfarm Payrolls, marking an improvement from December’s disappointing 74,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.7 percent.

US economic news-flowhas increasingly disappointed relative to expectations over recent weeks, suggesting forecasters still underestimating the severity of the current soft patch in the US recovery. This may open the door for an underwhelming result this time around as well.

Meanwhile, the latest round of “Fed-speak” has seen policymakers staunchly supporting continued"tapering" of QE asset purchases. That suggests a soft result is likely to be interpreted in terms of its negative implications for growth rather than in terms of fueling hopes for a slowdown in policy normalization, which may fuel further risk aversion.

In the FX space, such a scenario stands to boost the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Sentiment-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars may find themselves taking the brunt of selling pressure as risk appetite fizzles.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Construction Index (JAN)

48.2

-

50.8

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (JAN)

1277.1B

-

1266.8B

0:30

AUD

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

-

-

-

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Services PMI (JAN)

50.7

-

50.9

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (DEC P)

111.7

111.5

110.7

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (DEC P)

112.1

111.9

111.0

5:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (JAN)

53.3B

-

59.5B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (DEC)

14.2B (A)

19.1B

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (€)(DEC)

23.5B (A)

23.3B

Low

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

-0.9% (A)

0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

-0.6% (A)

-2.3%

Low

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (JAN)

437.7B (A)

435.2B

Medium

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (DEC)

2.3% (A)

4.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£, mn) (DEC)

-1026 (A)

-3582

Low

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£, mn) (DEC)

-7717 (A)

-9783

Low

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£, mn) (DEC)

-2198 (A)

-3048

Low

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC)

0.4% (A)

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC)

1.8% (A)

2.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (DEC)

0.3% (A)

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (DEC)

1.5% (A)

2.2%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC)

0.9%

1.9%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC)

3.5%

3.5%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3294

1.3429

1.3510

1.3564

1.3645

1.3699

1.3834

GBP/USD

1.6163

1.6239

1.6280

1.6315

1.6356

1.6391

1.6467

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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