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Forex: Markets Cast a Hopeful Eye on Fed-Speak Amid Risk Aversion

Forex: Markets Cast a Hopeful Eye on Fed-Speak Amid Risk Aversion

2014-02-04 11:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Markets Look to “Fed-Speak” Hoping for a Respite from Risk Aversion
  • Aussie Dollar Rallies as RBA Talks Down Interest Rate Cut Speculation
  • British Pound Modestly Higher as UK Construction PMI Tops Forecasts

A relatively quiet US economic calendar puts “Fed-speak” in the spotlight. Jeffrey Lackerand Charles Evans, Presidents of the Richmond and Chicago branches of the Federal Reserve, are scheduled to speak. US economic news-flow has significantly deteriorated relative to baseline expectations over the past three weeks.

Needless to say, slowing performance in the world’s largest economy raises fears about global economic growth at large. With that in mind, hints at the possibility of a pause in the Fed’s “tapering” of QE asset purchases may boost risk appetite. That bodes ill for the US Dollar but may offer a lift to sentiment-geared currencies including the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars.

The Aussie outperformed in overnight trade after the Reserve Bank of Australia said “monetary policy is appropriately configured,” arguing that “the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.” That squashed speculation about a possible resumption of the bank’s easing cycle, sending the currency broadly higher against its leading counterparts. The British Pound edged upward following a better-than-expected UK Construction PMI print.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (End of Period) (JAN)

¥200.9T

-

¥201.8T

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (JAN)

51.9%

-

46.6%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (JAN)

1.2%

-

1.0%

3:30

AUD

RBA Interest Rate Decision

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

9:30

GBP

PMI Construction (JAN)

64.6 (A)

62.1

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) (DEC)

-0.8% (A)

-1.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) (DEC)

0.2% (A)

-0.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3395

1.3454

1.3489

1.3513

1.3548

1.3572

1.3631

GBP/USD

1.6035

1.6191

1.6248

1.6347

1.6404

1.6503

1.6659

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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