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Forex: Euro Unlikely to Find Support in Upbeat Manufacturing PMI Data

Forex: Euro Unlikely to Find Support in Upbeat Manufacturing PMI Data

2014-02-03 07:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Support in Upbeat Manufacturing PMI Data
  • US Dollar Vulnerable if January’s ISM Print Proves Disappointing
  • New Zealand Dollar Outperformed in Otherwise Quiet Asian Trade

Final revisions of January’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI readings headline the economic calendar in European hours. Flash estimates put the most closely-watched German and regional-wide measures at 32-month highs. Confirmation of these seemingly robust results seems unlikely to boost the Euro as traders remain focused on anemic inflation trends and their implications for an expansion of ECB stimulus efforts, perhaps as soon as this week. We continue to hold short EURUSD.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to US ISM Manufacturing data. The report is expected to show that factory-sector activity growth slowed for the second consecutive month in January. US news-flow has increasingly softened relative to consensus forecasts over the past two weeks, suggesting analysts are overestimating the health of the world’s largest economy and opening the door for a downside surprise. That may weigh on the US Dollar as traders size up the outcome’s implications for a possible slowing of the Fed’s QE “tapering” process.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. A singular catalyst was not readily apparent, suggesting the Kiwi’s advance probably reflected corrective price action after last week’s dismal showing. The currency slid 1.56 percent against its US namesake, yielding the worst performance among the majors.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manuf. Index (JAN)

46.7

-

47.6

23:00

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (JAN)

1.2%

-

1.4%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JAN)

0.1%

-

0.7%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JAN)

2.5%

-

2.7%

0:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JAN)

0.3%

-

0.5%

0:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JAN)

4.8%

-

4.4%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC)

-2.9%

-0.5%

-0.3%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC)

21.8%

23.4%

23.6%

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN)

-0.3%

-

-0.8%

1:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (JAN)

53.4

-

54.6

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN)

27.5%

-

18.7%

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (JAN)

-9.9%

-

-3.6%

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (JAN)

91.5

-

92.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (JAN)

55.0

53.9

Low

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (JAN)

53.2

53.3

Low

8:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (JAN F)

48.8

48.8

Medium

8:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (JAN F)

56.3

56.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JAN F)

53.9

53.9

Medium

9:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (JAN)

57.3

57.3

High

10:00

EUR

Euro Area 3Q Government Deficit

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3325

1.3419

1.3452

1.3513

1.3546

1.3607

1.3701

GBP/USD

1.6313

1.6384

1.6411

1.6455

1.6482

1.6526

1.6597

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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