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Forex: Euro Vulnerable to Downside Surprise on German CPI Data

Forex: Euro Vulnerable to Downside Surprise on German CPI Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro at Risk if German CPI Miss Prompts ECB Stimulus Expansion Bets
  • Markets Overlook Strong Set of German Unemployment Data as Expected
  • US Dollar Volatility Risk Favors Upside as Markets Await 4Q GDP Data

The preliminary set of January’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to rise to 1.5 percent, marking the highest reading since August.

Leading PMI data from Markit Economics estimated the price growth rate at a four-month low however, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome is likely to bode ill for the Euro amid speculation about an expansion of ECB stimulus and we remain short EURUSD. A better-than-expected German Unemployment report produced next to no response from the single currency, as expected.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the first estimate of the fourth-quarter US GDP print. Economic news-flow has gradually deteriorated relative to expectations in recent weeks (according to data from Citigroup), with notable miss on December’s Nonfarm Payrolls print.

A similar pattern is expected on the GDP front: the year-on-year growth rate is seen slowing to 3.2 percent from 4.1 percent recorded in the third quarter.A late-2013 soft patch in the US recovery clearly didn’t prompt the Fed to slow the pace of QE reduction, so a print in line with forecasts is unlikely to offer fresh fodder for US Dollar sellers. On the other hand, an upside surprise would mark a departure from recent dynamics and has scope to push the greenback higher.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

20:00

NZD

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (DEC)

2820

-

2760

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)

7.6%

-5.0%

12.5%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (DEC)

2.24%

-

2.59%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (DEC)

2.6%

3.9%

4.1%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.8%

0.3%

2.0%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales

0.1%

0.7%

0.6%

0:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

-0.4%

-

7.5%

0:30

AUD

Import Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.6%

2.0%

6.1%

0:30

AUD

Export Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.5%

-0.2%

4.2%

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (JAN)

49.5

49.6

50.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JAN)

1.98 (A)

1.95

Medium

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)

6.8% (A)

6.8%

High

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (JAN)

-28K (A)

-19K

High

9:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (DEC)

0.7B

0.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC)

1.2B

0.9B

Low

9:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (DEC)

72.9K

70.8K

Medium

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (DEC)

-

0.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (DEC)

-

2.7%

Low

9:30

EUR

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (DEC)

5.2%

4.9%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (JAN)

101

100

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (JAN F)

-11.7

-11.7

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (JAN)

0.8

0.2

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (JAN)

-2.9

-3.4

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (JAN)

0.35

0.27

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (JAN P)

-0.4%

0.4%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (JAN P)

1.5%

1.4%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN P)

-0.6%

0.5%

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN P)

1.3%

1.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3486

1.3568

1.3615

1.3650

1.3697

1.3732

1.3814

GBP/USD

1.6403

1.6484

1.6524

1.6565

1.6605

1.6646

1.6727

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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