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Forex: Pound Looks for Fuel as GDP Data Informs BOE Speculation

Forex: Pound Looks for Fuel as GDP Data Informs BOE Speculation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen Falls, Commodity Dollars Rise as Risk Trends Continue to Correct
  • British Pound May Advance if 4Q GDP Data Drives Upbeat BOE Outlook
  • US Dollar Unlikely to See Follow-Through on News-Flow Before FOMC

The safe-haven Japanese Yen declined while the sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as FX markets continued to correct after last week’s risk aversion flare-up. Price action elsewhere in the G10 space was relatively muted, with investors seemingly reluctant to commit to a strong directional bias ahead of this week’s much-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Fourth-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to accelerate to 2.8 percent, the highest since March 2008. UK economic news-flow has cautiously improved relative to expectations. That has driven speculation that the Bank of England may meet the conditions to consider interest rate hikes set out in its forward guidance framework significantly sooner than expected. An upbeat outcome this time around may reinforce this dynamic, boosting the British Pound.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence data. Modest pullbacks are expected on both fronts, which may erode yield-based support for the US Dollar and pressure the benchmark currency downward. Follow-through is likely to be limited until markets have a chance to size up the FOMC policy statement.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (NOV)

0.2%

-

0.5%

23:50

JPY

Corporate Service Price (Y/Y) (DEC)

1.3%

1.1%

1.2%

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (DEC)

6

-

6

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (DEC)

4

-

-3

1:30

CNY

Industrial Profits YTD (Y/Y) (DEC)

12.2%

-

13.2%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (DEC)

51.3

-

51.1

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (Y/Y) (DEC)

-2.3% (A)

-2.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (M/M) (DEC)

0.0% (A)

0.1%

Low

7:17

CNY

Leading Index (DEC)

99.48 (A)

99.46

Low

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q) (4Q A)

0.7%

0.8%

High

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (Y/Y) (4Q A)

2.8%

1.9%

High

9:30

GBP

Index of Services (M/M) (NOV)

0.3%

0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (NOV)

0.7%

0.8%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3553

1.3617

1.3645

1.3681

1.3709

1.3745

1.3809

GBP/USD

1.6322

1.6436

1.6510

1.6550

1.6624

1.6664

1.6778

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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