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Forex: Pound at Risk if BOE Minutes Hint at Guidance Revision Ahead

Forex: Pound at Risk if BOE Minutes Hint at Guidance Revision Ahead

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Bank of England Meeting Minutes in Focus in European Trading Hours
  • Firm UK Jobs Data May Hurt Sterling if MPC Hints at Guidance Revision
  • Aussie Dollar Outperformed in Asia After 4Q CPI Lifted RBA Policy Bets

Minutes from January’s Bank of England policy meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. Traders will be watching to see if the recent run of upbeat UK economic data has started to stoke discussion about revising the parameters of the central bank’s forward guidance framework.

BOE Governor Mark Carney and company have stressed that the object of setting discrete thresholds that need to be crossed before tightening is an option is to divorce improving news-flow from rate hike bets. If that remains the case, pushing back against recently firming policy bets may call for lowering the bank’s unemployment rate target.

Such a move would amount to a dovish development and any discussion about undertaking it in today’s minutes is likely to weigh on the British Pound. In fact, against that backdrop, another drop in Jobless Claims and a slide to a four-year low of 7.3 percent on the three-month Unemployment Rate may prove to hurt rather than help Sterling, boosting the likelihood of an imminent dovish guidance revision.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade after the benchmark year-on-year CPI inflation rate unexpectedly jumped to 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter, trumping forecasts calling for a print at 2.4 percent. The currency tracked Australian bond yields higher following the outcome, hinting the print marked a supportive shift in RBA policy bets.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (JAN)

103.3

-

105

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JAN)

-1.7%

-

-4.8%

0:30

AUD

Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (4Q)

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

0:30

AUD

Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (4Q)

2.7%

2.4%

2.2%

0:30

AUD

RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (4Q)

0.9%

0.6%

0.7%

0:30

AUD

RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) (4Q)

2.6%

2.3%

2.3%

0:30

AUD

RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) (4Q)

0.9%

0.6%

0.6%

0:30

AUD

RBA Weighted Median (YoY) (4Q)

2.6%

2.3%

2.4%

1:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (JAN)

52.2

-

58.4

3:20

JPY

BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target

¥270T

¥270T

¥270T

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (DEC)

6.1%

-

22.3%

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (NOV)

0.3%

0.3%

-0.4%

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (NOV F)

111.1

-

110.8

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (NOV F)

110.7

-

110.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

9:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (DEC)

-32.0K

-36.7K

High

9:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (DEC)

3.7%

3.8%

High

9:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (NOV)

256K

250K

Low

9:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (NOV)

7.3%

7.4%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/Y) (NOV)

1.0%

0.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/Y) (NOV)

1.0%

0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Bank of England Minutes

-

-

High

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (DEC)

5.0B

0.4B

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (DEC)

14.0B

16.5B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (DEC)

12.0B

14.8B

Low

10:00

CHF

ZEW Survey (Expectations) (JAN)

-

39.4

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3445

1.3497

1.3529

1.3549

1.3581

1.3601

1.3653

GBP/USD

1.6282

1.6368

1.6423

1.6454

1.6509

1.6540

1.6626

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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