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Forex: US Dollar to Extend Gains if Fed Beige Book Sounds Upbeat

Forex: US Dollar to Extend Gains if Fed Beige Book Sounds Upbeat

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Rebounds as Fed Officials Talk Up QE “Taper” Outlook
  • Australian Dollar Underperforms as US Treasury Yields Advance
  • Fed Beige Book in Focus Amid Post-NFP FOMC Policy Speculation

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The US Dollar pushed broadly higher against its major counterparts in the wake of supportive comments from Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher, Presidents of the Philadelphia and Dallas branches of the Federal Reserve respectively. Both policymakers are voters on the rate-setting FOMC committee in 2014. As we suspected, the outcome overshadowed a slowdown in headline US retail sales growth (albeit a smaller one than expected).

The yield-sensitive Australian Dollar bore the brunt of the selloff among the non-USD G10 FX majors, sliding as much as 0.4 percent on average. The inverse correlation between AUD/USD and the 10-year US Treasury yield – a benchmark for tracking the markets’ Fed QE “tapering” expectations – is now at the highest level since July 2008 (-0.58 on 20-day percent change studies).

Looking ahead, a lackluster economic calendar in European hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve Beige Book, a survey of regional economic conditions. An upbeat report that reinforces the argument in favor of continued reduction in Fed asset purchases stands to boost the greenback further. On the other hand, a soft tone that echoes last week’s disappointing jobs report may cap gains in the benchmark currency.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (DEC)

-0.1%

-

-0.2%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (DEC)

4.2%

4.3%

4.4%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (DEC)

3.4%

3.4%

3.5%

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (DEC)

1.7%

-

2.1%

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (DEC)

0.1%

-

-0.2%

2:11

CNY

Foreign Reserves ($) (DEC)

3820.0B

-

3662.7B

2:11

CNY

Money Supply M0 (YoY) (DEC)

7.1%

8.0%

7.7%

2:11

CNY

Money Supply M1 (YoY) (DEC)

9.3%

9.0%

9,4%

2:11

CNY

Money Supply M2 (YoY) (DEC)

13.6%

13.9%

14.2%

2:11

CNY

New Yuan Loans (DEC)

482.5B

570.0B

624.6B

2:11

CNY

Aggregate Financing (RMB) (DEC)

1230.0B

1137.5B

1227.8B

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (DEC P)

28.0%

-

15.4%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (2013)

0.4% (A)

0.7%

Low

8:00

EUR

German Financial Balance (% of GDP) (2013)

-0.1% (A)

0.1%

Low

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (NOV)

4.2% (A)

1.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (NOV)

14.8B

14.5B

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (€) (NOV)

16.5B

17.2B

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3576

1.3626

1.3652

1.3676

1.3702

1.3726

1.3776

GBPUSD

1.6232

1.6328

1.6384

1.6424

1.6480

1.6520

1.6616

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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