News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/IyQdfq29fz
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here: https://t.co/EDvQdHfIPm https://t.co/R7pa7DsM8n
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: https://t.co/bTXkGN1CIM #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/EhdZpmkzaH
  • Even more remarkable than the record high levels of leverage registered in US equities this past week was the attention it garnered. Paying attention to risk is a threat when markets are this high and the docket as dense as it is this week. My outlook: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/01/23/Dow-VIX-Tesla-and-Leverage-Reflect-Greater-Risk-to-the-Relentless-Bull-Market.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/KBOJIRPTQe
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/qP2PbS4dsY
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/POGWDIkqqz
  • USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/H76jNJJxU5
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/1TiEWCbJ6t
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/fN2mfHgpON
Forex: US Dollar May Rise as Fed-Speak Overshadows Retail Sales Data

Forex: US Dollar May Rise as Fed-Speak Overshadows Retail Sales Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Not Sustain Gains if CPI Data Offers an Upside Surprise
  • US Dollar Looking to Fed-Speak for a Lifeline, Plosser and Fisher in Focus
  • Yen, Aussie Sold as US Yields Recover Amid Churning Fed Policy Speculation

Get Real-Time Feedback on Your Trades with DailyFX on Demand!

December’s UK CPI data takes top billing on the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to remain at 2.1 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Manufacturing- and service-sector PMI readings for the same period pointed to accelerating price growth however, leaving the door open for an upside surprise. Such a result may offer a near-term boost to the British Pound, but recent chatter about the possibility that the Bank of England will revise its forwardguidance framework to ward off tightening speculation may swiftly cap upward momentum.

Later in the day, the spotlight returns to the US as markets ponder the fate of the Federal Reserve’s QE “tapering” process in the aftermath of December’s dismal employment data. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart struck a hawkish tone yesterday but his remarks failed to prevent a breakdown of the US Dollar. The “Fed-speak” docket heats up today as Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher – presidents of the Philadelphia and Dallas Fed branches – take to the wires. Unlike Lockhart, both Plosser and Fisher are voting members of the rate-setting FOMC committee in 2014. That means their remarks may carry added weight and offer the greenback a lifeline if they too voice support for reducing asset purchases.

On the data front, traders will be watching December’s US Retail Sales report. Economists’ forecasts point to a 0.1 percent increase from November, marking the softest outcome in three months. While a slowdown in retail activity during a holiday-heavy month of the year doesn’t bode well, the release may not generate lasting US Dollar selling in and of itself. Many of the arguments made to explain December’s miss on payrolls – especially those of the weather-related variety – can be applied to a drop in receipts growth as well. With that in mind, a slowdown won’t necessarily offer anything new into the conversation and may be overshadowed by the aforementioned commentary from Fed officials if they opt for a hawkish lean.

The Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.4 and 0.7 percent respectively against their leading counterparts. The move appears to be corrective after both currencies scored strong gains yesterday. Not surprisingly, the moves tracked a rebound in US 10-year Treasury yields as the two rates-sensitive currencies continued to reflect gyrations in the markets’ Fed policy outlook.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (4Q)

52

-

38

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (DEC)

0.6%

1.0%

0.7%

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending - Total (MoM) (DEC)

1.0%

-

0.3%

21:45

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (DEC)

10.0%

-

9.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (DEC)

2.3%

-

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (DEC)

2.6%

-

2.4%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (NOV)

-592.8B

-368.9B

-127.9B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (NOV)

-46.6B

27.9B

-59.3B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (NOV)

230.1%

74.2%

-130.4%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (NOV)

-1254.3B

-1236.4B

-1091.9B

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (DEC)

-15.73%

-

-10.58%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (DEC)

55.7

54.0

53.5

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (DEC)

54.7

-

54.8

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM)

0.4% (A)

-0.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY)

-1.8% (A)

-2.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

-0.2%

-0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

-1.5%

-1.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.0%

-0.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

1.0%

0.8%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.0%

-0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

0.9%

0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (DEC)

0.5%

0.1%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (DEC)

2.1%

2.1%

High

9:30

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) (DEC)

1.8%

1.8%

High

9:30

GBP

RPI (DEC)

253.6

252.1

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (DEC)

0.5%

0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (DEC)

2.7%

2.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (DEC)

2.8%

2.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

ONS House Prices (YoY) (NOV) (DEC)

5.9%

5.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

1.4%

-1.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

1.8%

0.2%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3571

1.3618

1.3645

1.3665

1.3692

1.3712

1.3759

GBPUSD

1.6091

1.6252

1.6317

1.6413

1.6478

1.6574

1.6735

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES