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Forex: Yen, Aussie Dollar Rise in the Aftermath of US Jobs Report

Forex: Yen, Aussie Dollar Rise in the Aftermath of US Jobs Report

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

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The Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar advanced in overnight trade as Asian traders took their shot at responding to Friday’s disappointing US employment data. The two yield-sensitive currencies have been moving in lock-step with 10-year US Treasury yields, reflecting the impact of QE “taper” speculation. This dynamic has been thrown into reverse as markets ponder the possibility that the FOMC may have moved too soon to begin removing stimulus and will now be forced to reconsider.

While the rate-setting FOMC committee seems unlikely to abandon its medium-term strategy on the basis of one data point, speculation is likely to run rampant nonetheless. In the hours ahead, the spotlight will be Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who is set to kick off a busy docket of “Fed-speak” on tap this week. Signs of a dovish rhetorical shift that stresses the data dependence of future QE withdrawal and reiterates the possibility that the process may be slowed or halted may weigh on the US Dollar.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (A$) (NOV)

49.7B

-

48.9B

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (A$) (NOV)

22.4B

-

23.0B

0:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (NOV)

1.9%

-

1.8%

0:30

AUD

Home Loans (NOV)

1.1%

1.0%

1.1%

0:30

AUD

Investment Lending (NOV)

1.5%

-

6.8%

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (DEC)

-0.7%

-

-0.9%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.3%

0.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production wda (YoY) (NOV)

0.0%

-0.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (DEC)

-

-14

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3413

1.3528

1.3599

1.3643

1.3714

1.3758

1.3873

GBPUSD

1.6193

1.6327

1.6405

1.6461

1.6539

1.6595

1.6729

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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