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Forex: Euro at Risk if Soft CPI Data Feeds ECB Stimulus Speculation

Forex: Euro at Risk if Soft CPI Data Feeds ECB Stimulus Speculation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Turn Lower as Soft CPI Data Feeds ECB Easing Outlook
  • Status-Quo German Unemployment Data Unlikely to Stir Volatility
  • Fed-Speak Key in US Hours; Spotlight on Boston Fed’s Rosengren

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The focus is on December’s preliminary estimate of December’s Eurozone CPI reading in European hours. Expectations call for the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate to slow to 0.8 percent, an outcome that may put pressure on the Euro amid speculation that the ECB will move to further expand monetary stimulus in the months ahead. German Unemployment data is unlikely to generate much of a response: a token decline is expected in December, which would do little to derail the status-quo view on growth in the currency bloc’s top economy and thereby offer little impetus for volatility.

The spotlight turns to Fed-speak later in the day, with commentary from Eric Rosengren and John Williams – Presidents of the Boston and San Francisco branches of the US central bank, respectively – scheduled to cross the wires. Remarks from Mr. Rosengren ought to take on particular significance considering he was the sole dissenting vote opposing “tapering” of the Fed’s QE program at the December policy meeting. With that in mind, traders will be keen to get a sense of his reasoning, which may help establish what variables they ought to be watching as possible warning signs of a turn away from the newly-established status quo.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (NOV)

46.6%

-

52.5%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (NOV)

2.59%

-

1.99%

0:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (NOV)

-118M

-300M

-358M

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV)

1.5% (A)

-0.8%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)

1.6% (A)

-0.1%

Medium

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (DEC)

435.2B (A)

435.9B

Low

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (DEC)

-2K

10K

High

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC)

6.9%

6.9%

High

9:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (DEC)

-

7.0%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) (NOV)

-

-0.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) (NOV)

-

-1.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (DEC)

0.9%

0.9%

High

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (DEC)

0.8%

0.9%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3456

1.3537

1.3583

1.3618

1.3664

1.3699

1.3780

GBPUSD

1.6201

1.6297

1.6351

1.6393

1.6447

1.6489

1.6585

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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