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Forex: Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Support in German CPI Pickup

Forex: Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Support in German CPI Pickup

2014-01-06 10:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Yen Rose vs. Majors as Stocks Sank in Asia, Pound Underperformed
  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Support from German Inflation Pickup
  • US Dollar May Rise if ISM Data Bolsters QE Taper Continuity Bets

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The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.7 percent on average against its leading counterparts, as a drop on Asian stock exchanges drove demand for the safety-linked currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.9 percent, recording its biggest drop in three weeks. The British Pound bore the brunt of the selloff, sliding as much as 0.5 percent on average against the majors.

Looking ahead, the spotlight is on December’s preliminary set of German CPI figures. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge higher to 1.4 percent, marking a three-month high. While the result may offer a near-term boost to the Euro as a pickup in price growth works against bets on an expansion in ECB stimulus efforts, the single currency seems unlikely to remain well-supported.

Indeed, the disparity between the monetary policy needs of Germany and must of the remainder of the currency bloc are nothing new and strong performance in the region’s top economy will probably dictate the kind of easing to be undertaken by Mario Draghi and company rather than dismiss additional accommodation altogether. An augmented LTRO program with added conditionality or something akin to the BOE’s FLS scheme are some of the possible alternatives.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge. Expectations suggest service-sector activity accelerated in December after hitting a five-month low in November. Such an outcome is likely to support speculation about continued “tapering” of the Federal Reserve’s QE asset purchases, boosting the US Dollar against most of the G10 FX space. Top European currencies – where monetary policy divergence with the Fed is especially pronounced – seem particularly vulnerable.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Service Index (DEC)

46.1

-

48.9

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Services PMI (DEC)

50.9

-

52.5

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (DEC)

18.7%

-

13.3%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Services (DEC)

47.9 (A)

47.2

Low

8:50

EUR

French PMI Services (DEC F)

47.8 (A)

47.4

Low

8:55

EUR

German PMI Services (DEC F)

53.5 (A)

54.0

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone PMI Composite (DEC F)

52.1 (A)

52.1

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone PMI Services (DEC F)

51.0 (A)

51.0

Medium

9:30

GBP

PMI Services (DEC)

58.8 (A)

60.0

Medium

9:30

GBP

Official Reserves (Changes, $) (DEC)

-536M (A)

-868M

Low

9:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (JAN)

11.9 (A)

8.0

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (DEC P)

0.3%

0.2%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (DEC P)

1.4%

1.3%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (DEC P)

0.4%

0.2%

Medium

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (DEC P)

1.4%

1.6%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3435

1.3525

1.3557

1.3615

1.3647

1.3705

1.3795

GBPUSD

1.6271

1.6350

1.6384

1.6429

1.6463

1.6508

1.6587

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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