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Forex: Markets to Look Past European Data, Focus on Fed Commentary

Forex: Markets to Look Past European Data, Focus on Fed Commentary

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Quiet European Data Docket Shifts the Spotlight on Fed-Speak Roundup
  • US Dollar May Rise if Policymakers Hint at Continued Stimulus Reduction
  • Aussie and NZ Dollars, Yen Rise as Markets Digest QE Tapering Outlook

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A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours puts the spotlight on a busy schedule of “Fed-speak due in the final hour of the trading week. Charles Plosser and Jeffrey Lacker – Presidents of the Philadelphia and Richmond branches of the central bank respectively – as well as Governor Jeremy Stein and Chairman Ben Bernanke are all on the day’s docket.

Rhetoric reinforcing the likelihood of continued “tapering” of the Fed’s QE3 program in the months ahead is likely to boost the US Dollar against most of its top counterparts. A more cautious tone stressing the data dependence of near-term policy may yield the opposite effect. The rate-setting FOMC committee began to scale down stimulus in December, reducing asset purchase by a cumulative $10 billion.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars as well as the Japanese Yen advanced in overnight trade. The move tracked a rebound in US Treasury bond futures, suggesting the move probably reflected a correction as policy-sensitive currencies digest the likely trajectory of Fed actions in 2014. Benchmark 10-year US yields pulled back from a two-year high above 3 percent and bonds recovered yesterday as markets returned from the New Year holiday, with more of the same on deck in Asia.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI (DEC)

54.6

-

56.0

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.7%

0.6%

Low

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

7.1%

6.5%

Low

8:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (DEC)

1.91

1.85

Medium

8:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (DEC)

56.2

56.5

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 Money Supply s.a. (YoY) (NOV)

1.5%

1.4%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 Money Supply (3m Avg) (NOV)

1.7%

1.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (NOV)

0.7B

0.5B

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (NOV)

1.3B

1.2B

Low

9:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (NOV)

69.7K

67.7K

Medium

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (NOV)

-

0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (NOV)

-

2.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized (NOV)

4.8%

4.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

PMI Construction (DEC)

62

62.6

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3402

1.3547

1.3610

1.3692

1.3755

1.3837

1.3982

GBPUSD

1.6105

1.6297

1.6375

1.6489

1.6567

1.6681

1.6873

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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