News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/gFVVZTGbe1
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/nHXiNJhLes
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/h0TmJcZeqr
  • $USDCAD sold off aggressively last week, putting it into position to test the important 2017 low; trading bias is neutral to bearish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/sphxUAW9TB https://t.co/ZhsTeJOOM8
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/qP96xmgDVn
  • The pro-risk Australian Dollar may extend gains after the record miss in US jobs data, amplifying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and keeping the Dow Jones and S&P 500 intact. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/yf8mPX3O3W https://t.co/uCCmjaxUhF
  • Who else is keeping close tabs on Dogecoin $DOGE this weekend? All eyes on Elon Musk @elonmusk, the proverbial 'Dogefather,' and his Saturday Night Live @nbcsnl performance kicking off at 11:30PM ET. The #crypto is already looking nice and perky following that trendline break! https://t.co/nrQsnlUqWj https://t.co/4lOz6NLQTG
  • There is some very interesting event risk over the opening half of this coming week of trade. It starts with Elon Musk hosting SNL tonight for Dogecoin traders and moves into US inflation data to as means to stir the ongoing Fed debate and Dollar https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/LXhjv7ToWC
  • It was a big week for Gold bulls and Gold prices broke out to fresh two-month-highs, finally taking-out the 1800 level along the way. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/D222Ni37Dv https://t.co/KcMYyx3Ro4
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/PjywaPeUsl
Forex: Euro, Pound May Not Find Strength in Upbeat CPI and ZEW Data

Forex: Euro, Pound May Not Find Strength in Upbeat CPI and ZEW Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Pound May Not Find Lasting Upside Momentum if CPI Tops Expectations
  • Stronger German ZEW Data Unlikely to Offer Substantial Boost to the Euro
  • NZ Dollar Gains as the Government Cuts Bond Sale Plans, Projects Surplus

Get Real-Time Feedback on Your Trades with DailyFX on Demand!

November’s UK CPI report is expected to show the headline year-on-year inflation rate held unchanged from the prior month at 2.2 percent. Last month’s PMI reports pointed to broad-based price growth acceleration however. Indeed, output prices in the service sector – the largest component of the overall economy – grew at the fastest pace in two-and-a-half years. That opens the door for an upside surprise on today’s reading. Such an outcome may lead the British Pound higher in the near term, but meaningful follow-through seems unlikely.

While a firmer CPI print would probably feed speculation about crossing the BOE’s inflation-based “knockout” threshold – one of the pre-conditions for considering a tightening of monetary policy – the central bank’s recent rhetoric may limit upside momentum. BOE Governor Mark Carney and company have forcefully pushed the idea that the object of “forward guidance” was to decouple improving economic data from policy tightening expectations, underscoring policymakers’ insistence on maintaining an accommodative posture. Furthermore, traders are unlikely to be comfortable with committing to major trend development on any of the major currencies including Sterling before this week’s pivotal FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW Survey of analyst confidence is expected to show sentiment rose to the highest level in three months in December. The outcome may not prove supportive for the Euro however in that it would offer little reason to suspect the ECB will temper or abandon its easy policy stance. In fact, the improvement in analysts’ outlook may follow-on from last month’s surprise interest rate cut. While monetary stimulus can certainly buoy confidence in the future trajectory of economic growth, it likewise undermines yield-based support for the exchange rate. In fact, a revised set of Eurozone CPI figures is expected to show the year-on-year inflation rate held below 1 percent for a second month in November, bolstering the case for a dovish ECB for the time being. We remain short EUR/USD.

Most major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar overnight trade. The New Zealand Dollar outperformed, rising as much as 0.4 percent against its leading counterparts. The advance followed after the country’s Debt Management Office said it expects budget surpluses starting from FY2014-15 and reduced its expected bond issuance for the 2013-14 period. Finance Minister Bill English added that the government plans to begin repaying its debts early and echoed recent comments from the RBNZ, saying the central bank is likely to raise rates next year.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (OCT)

0.5%

-

0.3%

0:30

AUD

RBA December Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (NOV F)

15.4%

-

15.4%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

EU 25 New Car Registrations (NOV)

1.2% (A)

4.7%

Low

9:00

CHF

KOF Institute Economic Forecast (DEC)

-

-

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

-0.5%

-0.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV)

-1.0%

-0.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

0.0%

-0.3%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV)

0.9%

0.8%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

0.0%

0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV)

0.9%

0.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

ONS House Prices (YoY) (OCT)

4.1%

3.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

0.1%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (NOV)

2.2%

2.2%

High

9:30

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) (NOV)

1.8%

1.7%

High

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

0.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (NOV)

2.7%

2.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI ex Mort Int Payments (YoY) (NOV)

2.7%

2.7%

Low

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (DEC)

29.9

28.7

High

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (DEC)

55

54.6

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (NOV F)

0.9%

0.9%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI - Core (YoY) (NOV F)

1.0%

1.0%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Labor Costs (YoY) (3Q)

-

0.9%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (DEC)

-

60.2

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (DEC)

11

11

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (DEC)

5

5

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3618

1.3690

1.3725

1.3762

1.3797

1.3834

1.3906

GBPUSD

1.6189

1.6250

1.6274

1.6311

1.6335

1.6372

1.6433

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES