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Forex: Dollar May Extend Gains as PPI Data Fuels Pre-FOMC Speculation

Forex: Dollar May Extend Gains as PPI Data Fuels Pre-FOMC Speculation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Most Major Currencies in Consolidation Mode in Overnight Trading Hours
  • Japanese Yen Narrowly Underperforms, Carry Funding Rotation Suspected
  • US Dollar May Rise as PPI Data Fuels Pre-FOMC QE “Taper” Speculation

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Most major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar in overnight trade. The Japanese Yen continued to underperform in a move that seems to reflect continued rotation out of USD-funded carry trade positions into JPY-based alternatives. The cost of funding carry trades in Dollars rose to the highest in five years relative to doing so in Yen yesterday after a better-than-expected US Retail Sales report fueled speculation about an imminent “tapering” of Fed QE asset purchases.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is somewhat lackluster through the end of the trading week. November’s US Producer Price Index data is in focus. Expectations call the year-on-year growth rate to accelerate to 0.8 percent, marking the fastest pace for wholesale inflation in three months. A pickup in pipeline price pressure may help reinforce the US economy’s readiness for a reduction of Fed stimulus efforts, broadly boosting the US Dollar as “taper” speculation heats up before next week’s FOMC meeting.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

17:10

NZD

Business NZ PMI (NOV)

56.7

-

55.9

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (DEC)

129.4

-

128.4

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (DEC)

0.8%

-

5.0%

2:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (NOV)

65.1%

-

64.8%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT F)

1.0%

-

0.5%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT F)

5.4%

-

4.7%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (OCT)

1.2%

-

1.2%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

-0.2% (A)

-1.0%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

-2.2% (A)

-2.7%

Low

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1% (A)

-0.4%

Low

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (NOV)

-0.4% (A)

-0.3%

Low

9:30

EUR

Italian General Government Debt (OCT)

-

2068.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

1.6%

-0.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

1.3%

5.8%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (3Q)

-

-0.1%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (3Q)

-

-1.0%

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3635

1.3700

1.3726

1.3765

1.3791

1.3830

1.3895

GBPUSD

1.6169

1.6266

1.6308

1.6363

1.6405

1.6460

1.6557

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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