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Forex: Yen Gains, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Fall on Fed Taper Speculation

Forex: Yen Gains, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Fall on Fed Taper Speculation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen Gains as Australian, Kiwi Dollars Follow Stocks Lower in Asia
  • Overnight Risk Aversion May Reflect Fed QE “Taper” Speculation
  • Euro Looks to German CPI Revision to Guide ECB Policy Outlook

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The Japanese Yen outperformed on the back of safe-haven demand while the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollar declined as stocks fell in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.7 percent, following Wall Street lower in a move the newswires attributed to a pickup in speculation about the looming “tapering” of Fed QE3 asset purchases.

Fears of a cutback in the near term may have grown after October’s JOLTs Job Openings gauge unexpectedly rose to the highest level since May 2008. The metric has gained in prominence recently after it emerged that Janet Yellen – the presumptive successor to Ben Bernanke at the helm of the Federal Reserve – is a fan.

The revised set of November’s German CPI figures amounts to the only bit of noteworthy scheduled event risk in European trading hours. Confirmation of flash estimates putting the headline year-on-year price growth rate at 1.3 percent is expected. A downward revision may weigh on the Euro as investors consider the probability of further ECB easing in the months ahead.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence

-4.8%

-

1.9%

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index

105.0

-

110.3

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM)

0.6%

0.7%

-2.1%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY)

17.8%

15.0%

11.4%

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (MoM)

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

Domestic CGPI (YoY)

2.7%

2.7%

2.5%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (NOV F)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (NOV F)

1.3%

1.3%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (NOV F)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (NOV F)

1.6%

1.6%

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3641

1.3702

1.3732

1.3763

1.3793

1.3824

1.3885

GBPUSD

1.6349

1.6396

1.6420

1.6443

1.6467

1.6490

1.6537

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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