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Forex: Slow European, US Data Flow Does Not Guarantee Quiet Trade

Forex: Slow European, US Data Flow Does Not Guarantee Quiet Trade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Narrowly Weaker on Chinese Industrial Production Data
  • European, US Economic Calendars Offer Little to Drive Market Volatility
  • Diminished Holiday Season Liquidity May Amplify Knee-Jerk Price Action

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The major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar in overnight trade. The Australian Dollar narrowly underperformed after Chinese Industrial Production slowed more than economists expected. Output grew 10 percent year-on-year in November, falling short of the 10.1 percent increase being penciled in ahead of the release and amounting to the weakest reading in four months. China is Australia’s top trading partner and signs of slowing activity there bode ill for the latter country’s pivotal mining export sector.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance figures seem unlikely to generate a meaningful response from the British Pound given their relatively limited implications for the direction of near-term Bank of England monetary policy. Meanwhile, EU finance ministers are set to meet to continue work on the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) for Eurozone banks. A final accord is not until May, so the emergence of major policy innovation seems unlikely. Separately, the final revision of third-quarter Italian GDP is set to confirm output shrank 0.1 percent in the three months to September.

The US data docket is less eventful still, with October’s JOLTs Job Openings figure amounting to the only bit of noteworthy event risk. Although the indicator has gained a bit of prominence recently since it emerged that incoming Fed Chair Janet Yellen is fan, it seems unlikely that this release will succeed where higher-profile data (notably, last week’s Employment report) failed in overcoming year-end seasonal forcesto generate meaningful follow-through. With that said, diminished liquidity can amplify knee-jerk volatility in the event that investors are spooked by unforeseen headline risk, so caution is in order.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (NOV)

4.3%

4.2%

4.1%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (NOV)

3.4%

3.5%

3.3%

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (OCT)

-0.7%

0.1%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (4Q)

8.3

-

12.0

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (4Q)

9.7

-

15.2

0:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (NOV)

58%

60%

57%

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (NOV)

-3

-

-4

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (NOV)

5

-

6

0:30

AUD

Home Loans (OCT)

1.0%

1.0%

3.5%

0:30

AUD

Investment Lending (OCT)

8.2%

-

6.5%

0:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (OCT)

1.7%

-

6.2%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (NOV)

42.5

43.0

41.2

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (NOV)

9.7%

9.7%

9.7%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

10.0%

10.1%

10.3%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (NOV)

19.9%

20.0%

20.1%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (NOV)

13.0%

13.1%

13.0%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)

13.7%

13.2%

13.3%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (NOV P)

15.4%

-

8.4%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

EU Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

-

-

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

0.9%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

3.2%

2.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

1.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT)

2.9%

0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (OCT)

-3600M

-3845M

Low

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (OCT)

-9200M

-9816M

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (OCT)

-2800M

-3268M

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP (YoY) (3Q F)

-1.9%

-1.9%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3622

1.3674

1.3706

1.3726

1.3758

1.3778

1.3830

GBPUSD

1.6175

1.6285

1.6357

1.6395

1.6467

1.6505

1.6615

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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