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Forex: Euro Looks to PMI Data to Shape ECB Rate Decision Outlook

Forex: Euro Looks to PMI Data to Shape ECB Rate Decision Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Looks to Revised PMI Data to Shape ECB Rate Decision Speculation
  • British Pound Unlikely to Find Volatility in Slight Manufacturing PMI Uptick
  • Australian, New Zealand Dollars Rose After Firm Chinese PMI Roundup

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The final revision of November’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI number headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Flash estimates put the outcome at 51.5, marking the fastest pace of sector growth since June 2011. Traders will look to the result to help set the stage for the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. An upside surprise stands to boost the Euro amid fading bets on an expansion of stimulus efforts after last month’s surprise interest rate cut. Needless to say, a soft result will probably invert this dynamic and weigh on the single currency.

UK Manufacturing PMI data is also on tap. The measure is forecast to inch higher to 56.1 in November, snapping a two-month losing streak. UK economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations since mid-August. Meanwhile, BOE Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues at the central bank spent much of last week arguing forcefully that the great victory of the forward-guidance policy framework adopted in August has been to disconnect economic data outcomes from interest rate hike speculation. On balance, that hints a marginal uptick on the PMI gauge is unlikely to offer a meaningful boost to British Pound.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as a strong set of Chinese Manufacturing PMI figures bolstered the demand outlook for the two counties’ top export market. That in turn translated into a boost to RBA and RBNZ policy bets. November’s official PMI reading was reported at 51.4 over the weekend, unchanged from October but better than economists’ forecast of 51.1. An analogous measure from HSBC printed at 50.8, marking a slight slowing in factory-sector activity compared with an October figure at 50.9 but yielding a better result than the expected 50.5 outcome. The Japanese Yen underperformed on ebbing haven demand for the safety-linked currency.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

51.4

51.1

51.4

21:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)

7.5%

2.9%

4.7%

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV)

47.7

-

53.2

23:00

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

-

1.3%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

-

0.1%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV)

2.4%

-

2.1%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (YoY) (3Q)

1.5%

3.6%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (3Q)

2.3%

4.5%

1.4%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (3Q)

1.99%

-

2.00%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (3Q)

0.8%

-

-0.5%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (3Q)

24.1%

-

24.0%

0:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (NOV)

0.5%

-

0.5%

0:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (NOV)

3.8%

-

3.1%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (OCT)

-1.8%

-5.0%

16.9%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (OCT)

23.1%

17.0%

22.2%

0:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)

3.9%

1.0%

0.4%

0:30

AUD

Inventories (QoQ) (3Q)

-0.5%

0.0%

0.4%

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.8

50.5

50.9

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV)

13.3%

-

17.3%

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index (NOV)

89.9

-

88.6

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (NOV)

-1.9%

-

-0.5%

5:54

CNY

Leading Index (OCT)

99.54

-

99.57

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (NOV)

54.4

54.2

Medium

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (NOV)

50.8

50.7

Low

8:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)

47.8

47.8

Low

8:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)

52.5

52.5

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)

51.5

51.5

Medium

9:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (NOV)

56.1

56.0

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3514

1.3556

1.3573

1.3598

1.3615

1.3640

1.3682

GBPUSD

1.6218

1.6287

1.6327

1.6356

1.6396

1.6425

1.6494

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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