News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/ZJOEtpGUIq https://t.co/7ueAF5qR8C
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.74%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Vakm17zSSC
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (20/NOV) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.11% Silver: 0.55% Gold: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/nwOjSyoAbq
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.30% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/zrfx5KPV5X
  • EU's Šefčovič: says Brexit talks are difficult but constructive $GBP
  • 🇫🇷 Unemployment Benefit Claims (OCT) Actual: -56.6K Previous: -15.2K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.17% US 500: -0.18% Wall Street: -0.25% Germany 30: -0.36% FTSE 100: -0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/arymbmpUKF
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech due at 11:15 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • As a trader do you know when the markets let you take a break? Find out when the stock markets are closed. Check out @DailyFX holiday calendar here. https://t.co/M3ndtjxrOd https://t.co/EZ7emLN3F6
Forex: Aussie Dollar Sinks on FOMC Minutes, RBA Intervention Risk

Forex: Aussie Dollar Sinks on FOMC Minutes, RBA Intervention Risk

2013-11-21 11:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Sinks on FOMC Minutes, China PMI, RBA Intervention Threat
  • Japanese Yen Declines as Fed QE Taper Speculation Drives USDJPY Higher
  • Euro Little-Changed After Volatile Response to November’s Flash PMI Data

Get Real-Time Feedback on Your Trades with DailyFX on Demand!

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars plunged as most Asian stock exchanges slumped, pulling down the sentiment-linked currencies along the way. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index fell 0.7 percent amid fears that the Federal Reserve may begin to scale down its stimulus efforts sooner than expected after minutes from October’s FOMC meeting printed on the hawkish side of investors’ forecasts (as we expected). The move lower was compounded as HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI gauge revealed that factory-sector activity slowed more than economists expected in November.

The Aussie Dollar narrowly underperformed its Kiwi namesake as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the central bank was “open-minded” about FX market intervention. The central bank chief argued that the currency is above expect levels in the medium term and warned that although officials are still unconvinced about whether the benefits of intervention outweigh the costs, current inaction doesn’t mean the RBA will always remain on the sidelines.

The Japanese Yen fell as much as 0.8 percent against its leading counterparts. USDJPY appeared to lead the way as the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bond yields to 218.4bps in the wake of the FOMC Minutes release. That is just a hair shy of the two-year high at 221.7bps recorded in September amid expectations of an imminent “tapering” of QE3 asset purchases. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index closed up 1.92 percent, diverging from equity performance elsewhere in Asia and recording its strongest gain in five days. The newswires attributed the move to the weaker currency’s implications for export-geared sectors.

The Yen began to slide in early Asia, paused briefly to await the outcome of the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement, and resumed a several hours thereafter as it became clear the status quo will remain in placefor now. The central bank opted to keep monetary policy unchanged, maintaining its annual monetary base target at ¥270 trillion. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it was too soon to discuss changes in strategy with the economy moving on the right track but pledged to make adjustments if necessary. Japan’s headline year-on-year CPI inflation measure hit 1.1 percent in September, the highest in over five years.

The Euro was little-changed on net in the aftermath of sharp seesaw volatility as November’s preliminary PMI data set crossed the wires. The single currency initially plunged as French PMIs registered sharply below consensus forecasts but swiftly recovered following a firm set of analogous figures out of Germany. The region-wide Composite PMI figure edged down to a three-month low. Looking past near-term volatility, that is likely to keep alive the argument in favor of further ECB accommodation and we continue to hold short EURUSD.

Fed policy speculation is set to continue in the hours ahead as the weekly set of US Jobless Claims figures hits the tape. Initial and continuing claims are both expected to print lower, feeding bets on a relatively sooner move to cut back QE and encouraging the US Dollar higher. Another spirited round of “fed-speak” is likewise on tap, with Governor Jerome Powell as well as Richmond and St. Louis Fed Presidents Jeff Lacker and Jim Bullard (respectively) due to deliver commentary.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (OCT)

4.5%

-

1.3%

0:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (A$) (OCT)

-318M

-

-698M

0:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (A$) (OCT)

648M

-

663M

0:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (OCT)

39M

-

12M

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.4

50.8

50.9

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (OCT)

-0.8%

-

-0.1%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (OCT)

3.2%

-

5.1%

3:15

JPY

BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target

¥270T

¥270T

¥270T

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)

0.5%

-

0.4%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT F)

8.4%

-

8.4%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (OCT)

2.43B (A)

2.40B

Medium

7:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (OCT)

-2.6% (A)

2.0%

Low

7:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (OCT)

-2.3% (A)

2.3%

Low

8:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (NOV P)

47.8 (A)

49.1

Medium

8:00

EUR

French PMI Services (NOV P)

48.8 (A)

50.9

Medium

8:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (OCT)

9.1% (A)

9.7%

Low

8:30

EUR

German PMI Services (NOV A)

54.5 (A)

52.9

High

8:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

52.5 (A)

51.7

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (NOV A)

51.5 (A)

51.9

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

51.5 (A)

51.3

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (NOV A)

50.9 (A)

51.6

High

9:05

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Sydney

-

-

High

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (OCT)

6.4B (A)

8.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (OCT)

-16.8B (A)

-0.5B

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (OCT)

8.1B (A)

10.3B

Low

10:00

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks in Berlin

-

-

High

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)

5 (A)

-2

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)

11 (A)

-4

Low

15:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (NOV A)

-14.0

-14.5

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3150

1.3314

1.3376

1.3478

1.3540

1.3642

1.3806

GBPUSD

1.5944

1.6034

1.6069

1.6124

1.6159

1.6214

1.6304

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES