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Forex: Dollar Soars as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Two-Month High

Forex: Dollar Soars as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Two-Month High

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Soars as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2-Month High on Fed Taper Bets
  • Japanese Yen Falls as Nikkei Rallies, Newswires Cite China Plenum Speculation
  • British Pound May Fall as CPI Data Argues for Continued BOE Accommodation

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The US Dollar pushed higherin overnight trade, scoring gains versus all of its top counterparts. The move seems to have been a function of firming yield support for the benchmark currency. The yield on the benchmark US 10-year note rose bond trading reopened for the week having been offline Mondayfor the Veteran’s Day holiday, hitting two-month high at 2.785 percent. The push higher is likely reflective of follow-through on bets for a relatively sooner move to taper Fed QE asset purchases after Friday’s unexpectedly strong jobs report.

The Japanese Yen underperformed, sliding as much as 0.6 percent on average against the majors. The move tracked a rally in Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index, hinting the selloff reflected ebbing haven demand for the safety-linked currency. The newswires chalked up the pick-up in risk appetite to hopeful expectations as traders await the outcome of China’s Third Plenum, a sit-down of the ruling party’s top brassthat typically focuses on economic policy and is expected to conclude today.

October’s UK CPI report headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to tick lower to 2.5 percent, producing the lowest reading in six months. UK economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations over recent months (according to data from Citigroup), opening the door for a downside surprise.

Such an outcome stands to weigh on the British Pound as traders dial back the perceived likelihood of hitting the inflation-linked “knockout” threshold within the BOE’s forward-guidance framework prematurely. Follow-through may be limited however as the markets await tomorrow’s publication of the central bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, a document establishing the near-term trajectory of monetary policy.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

1.6%

-

0.8%

21:00

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (OCT)

2.1%

-

19.0%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (OCT)

4.1%

3.9%

3.9%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (OCT)

3.3%

3.1%

3.1%

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (SEP)

-0.2%

0.2%

0.6%

0:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (OCT)

57%

58%

53%

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (OCT)

-4

-

-4

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (OCT)

5

-

12

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (A$) (SEP)

48.8 B

-

48.9 B

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (A$) (SEP)

22.0 B

-

21.8 B

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (OCT)

41.2

45.5

45.4

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT P)

8.4%

-

-6.3%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

-1.0% (A)

0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

-2.7% (A)

-2.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (OCT F)

-0.2% (A)

-0.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (OCT F)

1.2% (A)

1.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (OCT F)

-0.3% (A)

-0.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (OCT F)

1.2% (A)

1.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

-0.4%

-1.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

0.3%

1.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.0%

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

1.0%

1.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.1%

-0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

0.7%

0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

ONS House Prices (YoY) (SEP)

3.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

0.4%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (OCT)

2.5%

2.7%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (OCT)

2.0%

2.2%

High

9:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

0.5%

0.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

3.0%

3.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (OCT)

3.1%

3.2%

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3247

1.3318

1.3362

1.3389

1.3433

1.3460

1.3531

GBPUSD

1.5880

1.5936

1.5963

1.5992

1.6019

1.6048

1.6104

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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