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Forex: Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise on China Data, US Jobs Report on Tap

Forex: Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise on China Data, US Jobs Report on Tap

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie and NZ Dollars Correct Higher, Aided By Strong Chinese Trade Figures
  • Quiet European Calendar Puts the Spotlight on October’s US Labor Market Data
  • US Dollar to Rise if Payrolls Surprise to the Upside, Boosting Fed QE Taper Bets

Get Real-Time Feedback on Your Trades with DailyFX on Demand!

Currency markets oscillated in narrow ranges overnight, digesting yesterday’s surge of volatility in the wake of an unexpected ECB interest rate cut and stronger-than-expected US GDP data for the third quarter. The Australian andNew ZealandDollars corrected cautiously higher having suffered outsized losses at the hands of risk aversion yesterday, aided by an impressively better-than-expected Chinese Trade Balance report.

The economic calendar is broadly uneventful in European hours, with only second-tier releases due to cross the wires. This is points the spotlight squarely on October’s US Employment data. Expectations call Nonfarm Payrolls to produce a 120,000 increase, marking the smallest gain in three months. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise for the first time since May, edging to 7.3 percent.

Traders continue to view US economic data in terms through the prism of Fed monetary policy expectations as they attempt to nail down the timing of the first cutback in the size of the central bank’s QE3 asset purchases. With that in mind, a soft result is likely to broadly weigh on the US Dollar as the baseline forecast for the beginning of stimulus reduction is pushed further out into the future. An upside surprise stands to yield the opposite effect.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

-

-

-

2:37

CNY

Trade Balance ($) (OCT)

31.01B

24.80B

15.21B

2:37

CNY

Exports (YoY) (OCT)

5.6%

1.7%

-0.3%

2:37

CNY

Imports (YoY) (OCT)

7.6%

7.4%

7.4%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT)

3.2%

3.2%

Medium

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (OCT)

3.1%

3.0%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (SEP)

15.4B

13.1B

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (€)(SEP)

15.0B

9.4B

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

0.6%

1.0%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

0.4%

0.1%

Low

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (SEP)

-

2.4%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-9200

-9625

Medium

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (SEP)

-4000

-4351

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-2700

-3320

Medium

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

1.5%

-0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

8.2%

4.0%

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.2949

1.3182

1.3301

1.3415

1.3534

1.3648

1.3881

GBPUSD

1.5866

1.5970

1.6034

1.6074

1.6138

1.6178

1.6282

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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