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Forex: Markets Mark Time as All Eyes Turn to US Jobs Data

Forex: Markets Mark Time as All Eyes Turn to US Jobs Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • FX Markets Consolidated in Asian Hours as Traders Waited for US Employment Data
  • NFP Print Important for Fed Outlook Despite Omission of US Government Shutdown
  • US Dollar to Interpret Jobs Report in Terms of Timing First “Tapering” of QE Effort

The major currencies oscillated in quiet overnight trade as investors awaited the much-anticipated release of September’s US Employment report. Expectations suggest the economy added 180,000 jobs from the previous month, topping the 169,000 increase recorded in August. The unemployment rate is expected to hold unchanged at 7.3 percent.

The markets are likely to interpret the result in terms of its implications for Federal Reserve policy expectations.Although the figures are dated in that they won’t reflect the impact of October’s US government shutdown, they will help establish whether the economy appeared resilient enough to “taper” QE asset purchases relatively soon before fiscal headwinds intensified.

With that in mind, a strong reading is likely to suggest the expected timing of the first cutback in stimulus can be brought closer into the near term from the March time frame now penciled into median forecasts (according to a survey from Bloomberg). Such an outcome stands to broadly boost the US Dollar against its top counterparts. A soft result will probably yield the opposite effect.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

CNY

China Property Prices (SEP)

-

-

-

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (SEP)

271.8

-

269.4

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (SEP)

2.49B (A)

1.86B

Medium

6:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (SEP)

2.0% (A)

1.9%

Low

6:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (SEP)

3.1% (A)

-3.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (SEP)

8.2B

-3.0B

Low

8:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (£) (SEP)

11.3B

13.2B

Low

8:30

GBP

PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF (£) (SEP)

11.5B

13.2B

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (SEP)

10.0B

11.5B

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3594

1.3634

1.3658

1.3674

1.3698

1.3714

1.3754

GBPUSD

1.6058

1.6106

1.6126

1.6154

1.6174

1.6202

1.6250

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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