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Forex: Dollar Down vs. Yen as US Ends Shutdown, Lifts Debt Ceiling

Forex: Dollar Down vs. Yen as US Ends Shutdown, Lifts Debt Ceiling

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Yen Rose After US Secured Budget Deal, Profit-Taking Likely at Work
  • FX Market Price Action Will Probably be Muted Through the Week-End
  • British Pound Unlikely to Find Lasting Volatility in UK Retail Sales Data

The US Dollar produced a muted response after both chambers of Congress successfully passed a bill lifting the so-called debt ceiling and ending the government shutdown that has dragged on since the beginning of the month. The Japanese Yen narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet trade, rising 0.6 percent against the greenback. The move looks to be corrective after yesterdays nearly-equivalent decline. That price action appeared to reflect speculation of a budget deal around the corner as the October 17 deadline loomed ahead, so it seems reasonable to see a period of profit-taking after expectations are validated.

Looking ahead, a period of digestion appears likely before investors are prepared to commit to clear-cut directional bias. For foreign exchange markets, US budget turmoil was viewed through the prism of Fed policy expectations, with a longer period of fiscal retrenchment seen as delaying a move to taper the size of QE3 asset purchases. Now that an end-point to the shutdown has been established, traders will be attempting to handicap its impact on US growth in the fourth quarter and beyond to gauge when Ben Bernanke and company may feel comfortable to begin dialing back stimulus.

That process will begin with the release of a slew of top-tier US economic data releases that were delayed whilst government services went offline. Although the numbers are certainly dated in that they will not reflect the shutdowns impact, they will establish a baseline and help gauge how the Fed may have been to act going into October. Defined release dates and times are still unknown for critical data points, including Septembers Employment report. That leaves the door open to ample volatility on tap next week but seems likely to make for lackluster price action through the week-end.

Septembers UK Retail Sales report headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for core receipts (excluding auto-related spending) to rise 2.2 percent compared with a year prior, marking a slowdown from the 2.3 percent increase recorded in August. The slowdown has been well-telegraphed by analogous figures from the BRC released last week however, hinting a validation in official statistics may not offer enough novelty to draw the markets’ attention and drive lasting British Poundvolatility.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (OCT)

122.3

-

118.8

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (OCT)

2.9%

-

-3.4%

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (3Q)

3

-

-1

2:00

CNY

Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (SEP)

4.9%

5.7%

0.6%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (SEP F)

-6.3%

-

-6.3%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account s.a. (€) (AUG)

-

16.9B

Low

8:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a. (€)(AUG)

-

26.6B

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (SEP)

0.3%

-1.0%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) (SEP)

2.2%

2.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (SEP)

0.4%

-0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (SEP)

2.0%

2.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (AUG)

-

0.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (AUG)

-

-1.2%

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3335

1.3430

1.3482

1.3525

1.3577

1.3620

1.3715

GBPUSD

1.5638

1.5803

1.5877

1.5968

1.6042

1.6133

1.6298

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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