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Forex: Yen in the Lead on Haven Demand as US Budget Impasse Lingers

Forex: Yen in the Lead on Haven Demand as US Budget Impasse Lingers

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Yen Rallies on Haven Demand, NZ Dollar Up on Supportive Data in Asian Trade
  • Australian Dollar Sold as Chinese Exports Unexpectedly Fall in September
  • S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Aversion Ahead as US Debt Impasse Continues

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade as most Asian stocks declined, driving demand for the safe-haven currency. Regional bourses edged lower after US policymakers failed to reach a budget accord over the weekend even as the October 17 deadline to increase the so-called “debt ceiling” looms ever-closer. The New Zealand Dollar rose on the back of supportive economic data showing service-sector activity and house sales growth accelerated in September.

The Australian Dollar proved weakest on the session, sliding as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts, in the wake of disappointing Chinese trade data released over the weekend. Beijing reported that exports unexpected fell -0.3 percent year-on-year in September, marking the first decline in three months.

Looking ahead, a quiet European economic calendar is likely to keep sentiment trends in the diver’s set. S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower, hinting at continued risk aversion in the hours ahead. The landscape remains clouded in uncertainty however as US lawmakers continue to negotiate, leaving the door open for an unexpected headline to spark an about-face across the financial markets.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (SEP)

55.6

-

53.3

23:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (SEP)

3778.1

-

3746.6

23:00

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (SEP)

0.8%

-

2.1%

23:00

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (SEP)

19.0%

-

8.5%

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (AUG)

A$48.9B

-

A$49.2B

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (AUG)

A$21.8B

-

A$23.0B

0:30

AUD

Home Loans (AUG)

-3.9%

-2.5%

2.1%

0:30

AUD

Investment Lending (AUG)

0.0%

-

2.9%

0:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (AUG)

-1.9%

-

0.0%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

3.1%

2.8%

2.6%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

-1.3%

-1.4%

-1.6%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM)

0.1% (A)

0.2%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY)

0.0% (A)

0.2%

Low

8:00

CNY

New Yuan Loans (SEP)

787.0B (A)

711.0B

Low

8:00

CNY

Foreign Reserves (SEP)

$3660.0B (A)

$3496.7B

Low

8:00

CNY

Money Supply M2 (YoY)

14.2% (A)

14.70%

Medium

8:00

CNY

Aggregate RMB Financing (SEP)

1400.0B (A)

1570.0B

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM)

0.8%

-1.5%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY)

-2.5%

-2.1%

Medium

13:00

EUR

Eurozone Finance Ministers Meeting

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3420

1.3484

1.3514

1.3548

1.3578

1.3612

1.3676

GBPUSD

1.5805

1.5883

1.5920

1.5961

1.5998

1.6039

1.6117

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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