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Forex: Dollar Eyes Fed-Speak, Impact of US Fiscal Woes on QE Taper Key

Forex: Dollar Eyes Fed-Speak, Impact of US Fiscal Woes on QE Taper Key

2013-10-08 06:47:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • US Dollar Recovers, Yen Declines as Markets Digest Yesterday’s Volatility
  • Quiet European, US Economic Calendar Keeps All Eyes on Washington DC
  • Fed-Speak in Focus to Gauge Impact of US Budget Impasse on QE “Taper”

Financial markets were in corrective mode in overnight trade. The US Dollar mounted a cautious recovery after posting the largest daily drop in nearly three weeks over the preceding 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen declined as the Nikkei 225 advanced, sapping demand for the safety-linked currency. Japan’s benchmark stock index plunged 1.2 percent yesterday to hit the lowest level in five weeks.

This brief respite seems unlikely to last however as continued deadlock over US budget policy drives worries about the implications of fiscal retrenchment in the world’s largest economy on global growth. Indeed, a relatively quiet data docket in European and US hours will keep the spotlight firmly pointed at Washington DC.

S&P 500 futures are trading flat for the time being, pointing to a lack of conviction behind risk appetite trends for the time being. The situation remains fluid however, meaning an unexpected headline pointing to a breakthrough in Congressional negotiations or signaling deepening deadlock may quickly change the sentiment landscape.

A dose of “Fed-speak” represents a wildcard. Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser are scheduled to speak. While neither is currently voting members of the policy-setting FOMC committee, both sit in on its meetings and may thus offer some valuable insight as traders attempt to nail down the timing of the first cutback in QE asset purchase. Commentary that touches on the impact of the US government shutdown on stimulus reduction plans ought to be particularly market-moving.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (3Q)

38

-

32

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (SEP)

0.7%

2.0%

1.8%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (SEP)

54%

45%

41%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (AUG)

161.5B

520.0B

577.3B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥)(AUG)

351.8B

634.1B

333.7B

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (AUG)

-63.7%

18.1%

-12.9%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (AUG)

-885.9B

-880.0B

-943.3B

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (SEP)

12

-

4

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (SEP)

-4

-

-7

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-

-2.0%

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Services PMI (SEP)

52.4

-

52.8

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (SEP)

-11.92%

-

-15.30%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (SEP)

52.8

52.0

51.2

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (SEP)

54.2

50.9

51.2

5:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (SEP)

53.0B

-

55.7B

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (SEP)

3.0% (A)

3.0%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (SEP)

3.2% (A)

3.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (AUG)

13.1B (A)

16.2B

Low

6:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (AUG)

9.4B (A)

14.2B

Low

6:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

0.4% (A)

0.3%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

1.0% (A)

-0.8%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

0.0%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP)

-

-0.4%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP)

-

0.4%

Low

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (SEP)

-

0.8%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (2Q) (2Q)

-

7.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

1.0%

-2.7%

Medium

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

3.9%

2.0%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3476

1.3524

1.3552

1.3572

1.3600

1.3620

1.3668

GBPUSD

1.5898

1.5984

1.6040

1.6070

1.6126

1.6156

1.6242

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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