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Forex: US Dollar Treading Water as Markets Digest FOMC Outcome

Forex: US Dollar Treading Water as Markets Digest FOMC Outcome

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar in Consolidation Mode as Markets Digest FOMC Outcome
  • Comments From Fed’s Bullard, George May Stoke Market Volatility
  • Canadian Dollar Underperforming Ahead of Augusts’ Inflation Data

The US Dollar was little-changed against its leading counterparts in overnight trade as currency markets consolidated after two days of aggressive volatility in the aftermath of Wednesday’s FOMC policy announcement. The greenback plunged after Ben Bernanke and company unexpectedly opted not to trim the size of the central bank’s QE3 effort and retraced higher over the subsequent 24 hours as a supportive set of Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales figures helped drive a correction.

The economic calendar is quiet in European and US hours and S&P 500 futures are trading flat ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting quiet consolidation is likely to continue into the week-end. Headline risk is not totally absent however, with speeches from Kansas City Fed President Esther George and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard due to cross the wires. Both are current members of the rate-setting FOMC committee and any comments that further illuminate this week’s decision to withhold “tapering” asset purchases and/or help shape expectations for the months ahead may generate volatility.

The Canadian Dollar came under pressure ahead of Augusts’ Consumer Price Index data due later in the day. The report is expected to show the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate slowed to 1.1 percent, marking the lowest reading in three months. Canadian economic data has tended to underperform relative to expectations since mid-June and traders suspect that more of the same can help build the case for a dovish turn in BOC monetary policy.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)

-1.4%

-

4.0%

22:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (AUG)

2100

-

1960

3:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (AUG)

6.6%

-

4.8%

3:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (AUG)

1.2%

-

-0.2%

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

2.7%

-

-2.5%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

5.6%

-

-1.0%

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

-1.4%

-

-0.8%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (£) (AUG)

13.2B (A)

0.2B

Low

8:30

GBP

PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF (£) (AUG)

13.2B (A)

0.7B

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (AUG)

11.5B (A)

-1.1B

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (AUG)

-3.0B (A)

-21.1B

Low

14:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP A)

-14.5

-15.6

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3397

1.3465

1.3497

1.3533

1.3565

1.3601

1.3669

GBPUSD

1.5809

1.5939

1.5986

1.6069

1.6116

1.6199

1.6329

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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