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Forex: Euro and Pound May Rise as PMIs Set Tone for ECB, BOE Meetings

Forex: Euro and Pound May Rise as PMIs Set Tone for ECB, BOE Meetings

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise with Asian Stocks on Chinese PMI Data
  • Japanese Yen Sold as Carry Trades Rise Amid Swell in Risk Appetite
  • Euro and Pound to Advance if PMIs Dent BOE, ECB Stimulus Bets

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The sentiment-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollar soared to start the trading week, pulled higher amid a broad-based improvement in risk appetite on the back of better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released over the weekend. Official figures showed the factory sector expanded at the fastest pace in 11 months in August.

An analogous measure from HSBC showed a likewise encouraging (albeit less dramatic) result. The bank reckons manufacturing sector activity expanded for the first time in four months in August. The Japanese Yen underperformed as the risk-on mood encouraged capital flows into carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 0.8 percent.

Looking ahead, the final revision of Augusts’ Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm the gauge hit a 26-month high. The Euro continues to track the monetary policy outlook as implied by the spread in front-end bond yields. That means a strong outcome that lowers the probability of further easing to be announced at this week’s ECB monetary policy announcement is likely to buoy the single currency, and vice versa.

UK Manufacturing PMI is likewise expected to show improvement, with the index forecast to rise to 55.0 in August, the highest since March 2011. Here too, a strong outcome is likely to prove supportive, with the British Pound likely to rise as if news-flow argues against an expansion of BOE stimulus efforts before this week’s MPC policy meeting.

New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

51.0

50.6

50.3

22:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)

4.9%

3.8%

4.2%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG)

1.8%

-

1.3%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

-

0.3%

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index

46.4

-

42.0

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (2Q)

0.0%

-2.1%

-3.9%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (2Q)

1.4%

-3.8%

-5.2%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (2Q)

-0.5%

-

-5.8%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (2Q)

24.0%

-

6.0%

0:00

AUD

RPData/Rismark House Px (AUG)

0.5%

-

1.6%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG)

2.1%

-

2.7%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

-

0.5%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL)

10.8%

4.0%

-6.3%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL)

28.3%

20.0%

-11.8%

1:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.8%

0.9%

3.5%

1:30

AUD

Inventories (QoQ) (2Q)

0.2%

0.1%

-0.5%

1:45

CNY

HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

50.1

50.2

47.7

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)

-6.4%

-

-13.5%

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index (A$) (AUG)

94.3

-

91.8

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index (YoY) (AUG)

-7.3%

-

-9.7%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (AUG)

54.6 (A)

57.4

Low

7:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (AUG)

50.8

50.4

Low

7:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (AUG F)

49.7

49.7

Low

7:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (AUG F)

52.0

52.0

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (AUG F)

51.3

51.3

Medium

8:30

GBP

BoE Publishes FLS Data (JUN)

-

-

Medium

8:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (AUG)

55.0

54.6

High

11:30

GBP

FSB/BOE Carney Pre-G20 Press Briefing

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3055

1.3136

1.3179

1.3217

1.326

1.3298

1.3379

GBPUSD

1.5368

1.5433

1.5468

1.5498

1.5533

1.5563

1.5628

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, email ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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