We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Downtrend May Have Restarted - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2020/01/24/EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-Euro-Downtrend-May-Have-Restarted.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #EURUSD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/AbwUdLh4mt
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/tkgAOlDdtU
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.06% Gold: -0.10% Silver: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LwLCxnO6eM
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/UT2Vl3reju
  • The US Dollar rose as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso fell on #Coronavirus fears. What is the technical outlook for $USDIDR, $USDSGD, $USDMYR and $USDPHP? #ASEAN - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/01/24/USDIDR-USDSGD-USDMYR-USDPHP-Coronavirus-Impact-on-Trends.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/hCnmsObRuS
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.22%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.20%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/x0bKaNAhmU
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/CY7vQwuEL1
  • So far this week, #GBP has been the best-performing #G10 currency against #USD with +0.78% spot-returns while #NOK has been the worst with -0.96% [delayed]
  • 🇳🇿 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (DEC), Actual: 3.4% Expected: N/A Previous: 4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-24
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (DEC) due at 02:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-24
Is the Australian Dollar on the Verge of a Major Recovery?

Is the Australian Dollar on the Verge of a Major Recovery?

2013-08-08 09:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

The Australian Dollar may be due for a significant rebound as short interest peaks against a backdrop of stabilization in Chinese economic news flow.

Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar Shrugs Off Soft Jobs Data, Rallies on Chinese Trade Figures
  • Peaking Short Interest, Stabilizing Chinese News Flow May Spark Aussie Rebound

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise uneventful overnight trade. The currency shrugged off a disappointing set of Employment figures that showed the economy shed 10,200 jobs in July, yielding the worst result in four months. Economists were expecting a 5,000 increase ahead of the announcement. A knee-jerk initial reaction brought the currency lower but losses were promptly erased.

Interestingly, details of the report were not much more encouraging than the soft headline figure. Full-time and part-time hiring both declined and a slight drop in the unemployment rate seems to have owed to a drop in the participation rate rather than a robust labor market. Furthermore, June’s figures were revised broadly lower.

As we discussed in our weekly forecast, such counter-intuitive performance seems to reflect a deceleration in capital flows feeding the Aussie-short trade. Put simply, those market participants that intended to be short at current levels are already there, meaning the down trend is running dry on fuel needed to perpetuate itself. Indeed, while the latest COT data set shows net speculative shorts hit another record high, the week-on-week growth rate of anti-AUD exposure has dramatically declined.

Furthermore, the breakdown in the Aussie over recent months has closely tracked the deterioration in the relative monetary policy outlook, which in turn appears to have emerged as the markets aggressively slashed their outlook for Chinese economic growth. With this in mind, it’s noteworthy that Chinese economic news-flow appears to be stabilizing relative to expectations. If this helps halt the slide in Chinese growth bets, it may likewise scatter near-term RBA rate cut bets and set the stage for an Aussie recovery.

Indeed, having undone the initial downward spike after the jobs report, the Australian unit proceeded to rally as China released an impressively strong set of trade figures. Imports rose by 10.9 percent, marking the largest year-on-year increase in three months and hinting demand from Australia’s top trading partner may be far more resilient than expected (economists were penciling in a mere 1 percent increase ahead of the release). Prices are now probing above near-term chart resistance and threatening to open the door for a larger push upward.

New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)

3.2%

-

3.2%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JUN)

336.3B

400.0B

540.7B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JUN)

646.2B

711.8B

623.3B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JUN)

-139.2B

-128.7B

-906.7B

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUN)

-20.3%

-3.5%

58.1%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL)

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL)

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

0:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

8.1%

-

7.6%

1:30

AUD

Employment Change (JUL)

-10.2K

5.0K

9.3K

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (JUL)

5.7%

5.8%

5.7%

1:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (JUL)

-6.7K

-

-5.1K

1:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (JUL)

-3.5K

-

14.4K

1:30

AUD

Participation Rate (JUL)

65.1%

65.3%

65.3%

2:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JUL)

8.29

-

8.46

3:00

JPY

Bank of Japan 2014 Monetary Base Target

¥270T

¥270T

¥270T

3:05

CNY

Trade Balance (JUL)

$17.82B

$26.90B

$27.12B

3:05

CNY

Exports (YoY) (JUL)

5.1%

2.0%

-3.1%

3:05

CNY

Imports (YoY) (JUL)

10.9%

1.0%

-0.7%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL)

-0.1%

-

-8.0%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL)

52.3

53.5

53

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL)

53.6

54.1

53.6

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (JUL)

3.0%

2.9%

2.9%

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (JUN)

16.9B

15.0B

13.6B

6:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (JUN)

17.3B

16.0B

11.2B

6:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

-0.8%

0.5%

1.4%

6:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

0.6%

0.9%

-2.0%

6:30

JPY

BOJ Governor Kuroda Holds Press Conference

-

-

-

6:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$)

55.5B

-

51.9B

8:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Monthly Report

-

-

-

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPP 3

SUPP 2

SUPP 1

Pivot Point

RES 1

RES 2

RES 3

EURUSD

1.3158

1.3237

1.3286

1.3316

1.3365

1.3395

1.3474

GBPUSD

1.4759

1.5084

1.5286

1.5409

1.5611

1.5734

1.6059

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.