News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • OPEC technical meeting was told to expect US oil output to rise by 200kbpd this year - OPEC & Industry sources
  • 🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index YoY (MAY) Actual: 11.3% Previous: 9.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 82.84%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 76.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zkLXaQqTXf
  • Fed's Bullard says his dot plot reflects liftoff in late 2022
  • $USDCAD taking on a new life now, back above the longer-term trendline +370 from the failed breakout earlier this month https://t.co/2oP2ky434R https://t.co/BhnSTJFv2m
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/7nP2tv6q9a
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.03% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.41% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.49% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ChEmo0URYP
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index YoY (MAY) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 9.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/v6m2DLdhHa
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
US Dollar: How Will Markets Interpret the FOMC Policy Announcement?

US Dollar: How Will Markets Interpret the FOMC Policy Announcement?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The US Dollar is likely to look to the presence of changes in the Fed’s forward guidance as the key consideration in judging the FOMC policy announcement.

Talking Points

  • US Dollar to Judge FOMC Outcome Based on Change in Forward Guidance
  • Euro to Extend Gains if CPI Tops Forecasts, Limiting Scope for ECB Easing

Financial markets are likely to look past the European economic calendar as all eyes turn to the outcome of the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. Traders will look for confirmation of consensus expectations calling for the central bank to begin “tapering” the size of its monthly asset purchases in September. Officials have just the policy statement to convey their message to the markets this time and so are likely to select language that is as neutral as possible to limit scope for the kind of volatility that was seen after the June sit-down.

With that in mind, the market-moving bit of the announcement is likely to be the presence or absence of changes to the forward guidance component of the Fed’s policy mix. In this context, a dovish scenario will see the FOMC supplement familiar taper-related language with the introduction of a lower bound on inflation and/or a reduction in the threshold for the unemployment rate needed to be achieved before rate hikes enter the picture. That would cement policymakers’ intention to remain accommodative even as tapering commences, weighing on the US Dollar. By contrast, a hawkish outcome would see policymakers abstain from changes to forward guidance, a result likely to boost the greenback.

The flash estimate of July’s Eurozone CPI reading headlines the European docket. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation to remain unchanged at 1.6 percent but yesterday’s upside surprise on the analogous German print opens the door for more of the same on the region-wide metric. The Euro continues to track monetary policy expectations and a pickup in price growth is likely to be supportive in terms of limiting scope for a dovish turn at the ECB when the central bank delivers its policy announcement later in the week. The single currency is already on the upswing following an encouraging set of German unemployment figures.

The second-quarter US GDP report is also on tap, with output expected to grow 1 percent compared with the 1.8 percent increase in the prior period. The release is unlikely to generate a lasting response beyond initial knee-jerk volatility however as the FOMC announcement hogs the spotlight.

New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-0.5%

-

-0.2%

23:15

JPY

Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

50.7

-

52.3

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN)

1.67%

-

2.06%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (JUL)

52.8

-

50.1

1:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL)

43.7

-

45

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN)

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN)

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN)

3.1%

2.9%

3.0%

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN)

6.2%

-

6.2%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN)

15.3%

16.0%

14.5%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JUN)

0.976M

0.982M

1.027M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN)

21.9%

-

26.0%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

-1.5% (A)

0.7%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

-2.8% (A)

0.8%

Medium

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (JUN)

1.44 (A)

1.45

Low

7:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JUL)

1.23 (A)

1.15

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (JUL)

-7K (A)

-13K

High

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

6.8% (A)

6.8%

High

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (JUN P)

12.1% (A)

12.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL)

1.6%

1.6%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (JUL A)

1.2%

1.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN)

12.2%

12.2%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3231

1.3401

GBPUSD

1.5142

1.5320

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES