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All Eyes on Bank of England Minutes, Bernanke Testimony

All Eyes on Bank of England Minutes, Bernanke Testimony

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Monetary policy is at the forefront for financial markets as all eyes turn to minutes from July’s BOE policy meeting and Congressional testimony from Ben Bernanke.

Talking Points

  • US Dollar to Fall if Bernanke Testimony Cools QE “Taper” Speculation
  • British Pound Looks to BOE Minutes to Size Up Carney’s First Outing

The US Dollar recovered against its major counterparts in overnight, adding as much as 0.3 percent on average, as markets digested the largest decline in four days recorded over the prior 24 hours. All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke two days of semi-annual testimony to the US Congress. Traders are looking to the central bank chief’s comments to inform expectations for the timing and size of a reduction of the Fed’s QE effort.

Bernanke has been busy highlighting the difference between “tightening” monetary policy and “tapering” asset purchases recently after markets ran with pricing in a hawkish shift in the posture of the rate-setting FOMC committee following the June meeting. That move produced a sharp jump in US bond yields and sent risky assets tumbling. The greenback is likely to come under renewed pressure if the rhetoric emerging out of today’s testimony continues to stress a need for accommodation and the data dependence of the decision to taper QE purchases.

The release of minutes from July’s Bank of England policy meeting, the first one with Governor Mark Carney at the helm, is in focus on the European economic calendar. Investors will be keen to see how the new leader of the central bank voted on the matter of expanding QE and what logic went into the decision to issue an accompanying statement (a move unusual for the BOE at times when it doesn’t change the policy mix).

All else being equal, the British Pound is likely to rise if Carney voted against more QE, and vice versa. Hints of change in the central bank’s strategy in delivering policy support – such as the introduction of Fed-style forward guidance on how long rates are likely to remain low – will probably weigh on Sterling however. Separately, economists’ forecasts call for an 8,000 decline in UK Jobless Claims in June, putting total outstanding applications for benefits at the lowest since March 2009.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

BOJ Releases June Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (M/M) (MAY)

0.2%

-

0.7%

2:00

CNY

Actual FDI (YoY) (JUN)

20.1%

0.7%

0.3%

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (JUN)

263.8

-

261.3

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (Y/Y) (JUN F)

-12.4%

-

-12.4%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Bank of England Minutes

-

-

High

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (JUN)

-8.0K

-8.6K

High

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (JUN)

4.5%

4.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY)

7.8%

7.8%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAY)

81K

24K

Low

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/Y) (MAY)

1.1%

0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/Y) (MAY)

1.4%

1.3%

Low

9:00

CHF

ZEW Survey (Expectations) (JUL)

-

2.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Construction Output (M/M) (MAY)

-

2.0%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Construction Output (Y/Y) (MAY)

-

-6.6%

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3085

1.3207

GBPUSD

1.5001

1.5204

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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