News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/rOnWgIotlz
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.11% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% Silver: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ENxA7SeIDF
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.13% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.13% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/cmUacZR1bK
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 87.12%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 74.18%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WKmgAjSLWR
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/3rXsyuSemd
  • Nasdaq 100 Rebounds as Tapering Fears Ease, Hang Seng and ASX 200 Climb https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/22/Nasdaq-100-Rebounds-as-Tapering-Fears-Ease-Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-Climb.html https://t.co/NZxRtj3rNa
  • ANZ Bank sees New Zealand house prices increasing by 0.7% in 2022 - BBG
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/9ZUHvkEw7R
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/aGz502atu0
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/OibiizbywE
Dollar Torn Between Fed Policy Cues from US Data, Bank Earnings

Dollar Torn Between Fed Policy Cues from US Data, Bank Earnings

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Dollar faces a tough balancing act into the week-end as earnings reports from two key US banks and the day’s economic data set offer conflicting Fed policy clues.

Talking Points

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Momentum in Industrial Production Data
  • Strong US PPI, Consumer Confidence Data May Rekindle Fed “Taper” Bets
  • JPMorgan, Wells Fargo May Sound Alarm on Rates Jump in Q2 Guidance

Eurozone Industrial Production figures headline a lackluster economic calendar on tap in European hours. Expectations call for a 0.3 percent decline in May, marking the worst outcome in four months. Relative monetary policy expectations remain a key driver of Euro price action, so a soft outcome may weigh on the single currency by reinforcing the recent dovish turn at the ECB.

Meaningful follow-through is unlikely however as the focus remains on the Federal Reserve side of the comparative monetary policy debate. With that in mind, US PPI data and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge are likely to be more significant drivers of price action.

Wholesale inflation is expected to accelerate, putting the year-on-year rate at an eight-month high of 2.1 percent. Meanwhile, the UofM sentiment index is expected to hit the highest level in 6 years. Strong results may rekindle bets on a cutback in Fed asset purchases, particularly as investors realize this week’s heavily scrutinized Bernanke commentary did not amount to an about-face on policy. Such an outcome may offer a lifeline to the US Dollar after two days of aggressive selling.

On the corporate earnings front, second-quarter reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are on tap. Forex traders will be keen to size up the lenders’ forward guidance vis-à-vis the recent jump in bond yields amid QE drawdown speculation. Signs of unease about the implications of a reduction in asset purchases on lending activity may countervail “pro-taper” cues from the US economic data set, keeping a lid on any significant recovery in the greenback.

The major currencies drifted sideways overnight as an absence of top-tier scheduled event risk allowed the markets to digest the preceding day’s volatility. The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed, rising as much as 0.4 percent against its top counterparts.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

AUD

RBA Credit Card Balances (MAY)

A$49.6B

-

A$49.4B

1:30

AUD

RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAY)

A$22.6B

-

A$21.6B

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (MAY)

1.8%

2.2%

1.2%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (MAY)

1.5%

-

0.9%

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (MAY)

2.3%

-

-0.6%

3:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUN)

68.2%

-

69.1%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F)

1.9%

-

2.0%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F)

-1.1%

-

-1.0%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY F)

2.3%

-

1.6%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Construction Output (YoY) (MAY)

-2.8%

-1.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)

-0.3%

0.4%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY)

-1.3%

-0.6%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2971

1.3215

GBPUSD

1.5048

1.5271

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES