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Euro, US Dollar Look to PMI and ISM Data for Policy Cues

Euro, US Dollar Look to PMI and ISM Data for Policy Cues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro and US Dollar remain focused on the outlook for ECB and Fed monetary policy, with PMI and ISM reports set to guide near-term expectations.

Talking Points

  • Euro to Rise if Final PMI Roundup Downgrades ECB Stimulus Bets
  • US Dollar Looks to Services ISM, Beige Book for Fed QE Taper Cues

A busy docket of growth indicators due in European trading hours will set the stage for the European Central Bank interest rate decision later in the week. The final set of May’s Eurozone PMI figures starts things off, with expectations putting the region-wide composite index at a three-month high of 47.7 (in line with flash estimates).

The metric has tended to outperform consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year however. A similar outcome this time around may to downgrade bets on an expansion of ECB stimulus efforts and boost the Euro. An upgrade in the second revision of first-quarter Eurozone GDP data would carry similar implications. Needless to say, disappointing results are likely to yield the opposite results.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the US calendar, where the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge will be in focus. Expectations call for the pace of service-sector growth to increase in May, snapping a two-month deceleration streak. The Federal Reserve is also set to release its Beige Book regional economic conditions survey.

Traders will interpret the outcomes through the prism of QE3 reduction probability. That means a soft result similar to the disappointing ISM Manufacturing print earlier in the weak is likely to boost risk appetite and weigh on the US Dollar as stimulus cutback expectations are downgraded. Needless to say, supportive data will probably yield the opposite result.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings s.a. (1Q)

5.8%

-

1.8%

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (MAY)

-0.1%

-

0.4%

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Service Index (MAY)

40.6

-

44.1

1:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (MAY)

-1.6%

-

12.6%

1:30

AUD

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

0.6%

0.7%

0.6%

1:30

AUD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

2.5%

2.7%

3.2%

1:45

CNY

HSBC Services PMI (MAY)

51.2

-

51.1

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:45

EUR

Italian PMI Services (MAY)

47.5

47

Low

7:50

EUR

French PMI Services (MAY F)

44.3

44.3

Low

7:55

EUR

German PMI Services (MAY F)

49.8

49.8

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY F)

47.5

47.5

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY F)

47.7

47.7

Medium

8:30

GBP

PMI Services (MAY)

53.2

52.9

Medium

8:30

GBP

Official Reserves – Changes ($) (MAY)

-

-1149M

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)

-0.2%

-0.2%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (1Q P)

-1.0%

-1.0%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P)

-

-0.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (1Q P)

-

-1.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Gov’t Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q P)

-

-0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)

-0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-0.6%

-2.4%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3048

1.3134

GBPUSD

1.5277

1.5379

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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