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Euro, Pound May Rise as PMIs Set Stage for ECB and BOE Results

Euro, Pound May Rise as PMIs Set Stage for ECB and BOE Results

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro and the British Pound may rise as the May roundup of PMI figures sets the stage for ECB and BOE monetary policy announcements due later in the week.

Talking Points

  • Euro and Pound May Rise as PMIs Weighs Against Dovish ECB, BOE Bets
  • Aussie Dollar Gains on Official Chinese PMI Print, Ignores Soft HSBC Data

The final set of May’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Traders will look to the outcomes to set the stage for the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement later in the week. Against this backdrop, supportive results are likely to downgrade bets on further easing in the near term and boost the Euro. Needless to say, a disappointing roundup is likely to yield the opposite results.

Similarly, the UK Manufacturing PMI print will guide Bank of England policy expectations. The index is seen moving back above the 50 boom-bust threshold, making for the first expansion in sector activity in four months. Such a result is likely to be supportive for the British Pound, particularly after former BOE policymaker Adam Posen – one of the most ardent doves on the bank’s MPC committee in recent years – said incoming Governor Mark Carney ought to focus on regulatory matters rather than stimulus when he takes the reins next month.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.6 percent against its leading counterparts, in the wake of a supportive Chinese Manufacturing PMI figures released over the weekend. The report showed factory-sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in two months. Consensus forecasts pointed to a flat result ahead of the release.

Disappointing results on an analogous report from HSBC failed to meaningfully stem upward momentum. A greater sensitivity to supportive outcomes probably reflects the skew in the markets’ Australian Dollar positioning. Indeed, figures from the CFTC released last week showed speculators are the most net short the Aussie in over a year, creating a bias toward profit-taking on counter-trend news.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAY)

43.8

-

36.7

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (1Q)

-3.9%

-5.5%

-8.7%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (1Q)

-5.2%

-5.4%

-7.2%

0:00

AUD

RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAY)

-1.2%

-

-0.5%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

-

0.3%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY)

2.2%

-

2.1%

1:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (MAY)

54.3

-

54.5

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)

-2.4%

-

-1.7%

1:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (APR)

0.2%

0.3%

-0.4%

1:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q)

3.0%

1.5%

-0.5%

1:30

AUD

Inventories (1Q)

-0.6%

0.0%

0.2%

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

49.2

49.6

50.4

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-7.3%

-

2.0%

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Price Index (MAY)

87.0

-

85.5

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAY)

-8.6%

-

-7.3%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

52.2 (A)

50.2

Medium

7:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

46.2

45.5

Low

7:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (MAY F)

45.5

45.5

Low

7:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (MAY F)

49.0

49.0

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY F)

47.8

47.8

Medium

8:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (MAY)

50.3

49.8

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2942

1.3058

GBPUSD

1.5146

1.5391

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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