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Yen, Aussie Rise as Dollar Falls on Consensus Trade Liquidation

Yen, Aussie Rise as Dollar Falls on Consensus Trade Liquidation

2013-05-30 08:42:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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The Japanese Yen and the Aussie rose while the US Dollar declined amid liquidation of consensus trades across financial markets. More of the same is likely ahead.

Talking Points

  • Yen, Aussie Dollar Rise as Profit-Taking on Established Trends Returns in Asia
  • US Dollar at Risk as Status Quo US Economic Data Fails to Quell Liquidation

The liquidation push seen at the start of the trading week returned in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional stock index plunged 2 percent, led lower by dramatic plunge in the Nikkei 225. Japan’s equity benchmark sank as much 5.4 percent.

Not surprisingly, the Japanese Yen outperformed, adding as much as 0.5 percent against its G10 FX counterparts. As we discussed before, we see this dynamic reflective of profit-taking in the absence of new catalysts to propel policy speculation until the effectiveness of “Abenomics” can be credibly assessed.

The corrective mood seems to stretch beyond Japan however. Indeed, familiar trading patterns appear to be giving way across the major asset spectrum, with the single unifying theme being an unwinding of consensus trends.

Within this context, it seems reasonable to see the US Dollar broadly lower considering the greenback has been the best-performing currency since the start of the year. The brisk recovery of the Australian Dollar – a move seemingly puzzling against a backdrop of risk aversion – likewise makes sense in such an environment.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar in European session hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US calendar. Pending Home Sales are expected to rise 1.5 percent for a second consecutive month, the second revision of first-quarter GDP is seen confirming the annualized growth rate at 2.5 percent, and Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to hold at 340k for a second week.

Absent major deviations, these don’t seem like the kind of figures that threaten to derail established momentum. Meanwhile S&P 500 futures are pointing lower following yesterday’s cautious support break, warning the liquidation dynamic is likely to carry forward as Wall Street comes online.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (APR)

18.5%

7.7%

-8.3%

1:08

AUD

CBAHIA House Affordability (1Q)

69.7

-

68.9

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (APR)

9.1%

4.0%

-5.5%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (APR)

27.3%

22.5%

4.4%

1:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure (1Q)

-4.7%

0.5%

-2.1%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

1.1% (A)

1.4%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

0.6% (A)

0.3%

Medium

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY)

1.1% (A)

0.9%

Medium

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

0.4% (A)

0.0%

Medium

8:15

JPY

BOJ’s Nakaso Speaks at Bellwether Conf

-

-

Low

8:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (MAY)

39 (A)

27

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY F)

-21.9

-21.9

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAY)

89.4

88.6

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAY)

-0.85

-0.93

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (MAY)

-13

-13.8

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Services Confidence (MAY)

-10.6

-11.1

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2860

1.3059

GBPUSD

1.5045

1.5232

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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