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Major Currencies May Enter Consolidation on Absent Event Risk

Major Currencies May Enter Consolidation on Absent Event Risk

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Currency markets may enter into consolidation mode, taking an opportunity to digest recent volatility amid a lull in top-tier scheduled event risk.

Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar Sinks as RBA Cuts Key Interest Rate to Record Low
  • Soft German Factory Orders Report May Damage Euro on ECB Bets

The Australian Dollar underperformed after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low at 2.75 percent, as expected. The currency slid as much as 0.8 percent on average against its top counterparts. Traders are now pricing in another 25bps reduction at the June meeting and at least one further cut beyond that over the coming 12 months.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours, with Germany’s Factory Orders report amounting to the only bit of noteworthy event risk on the docket. Expectations call for a 2.9 percent year-on-year decline in March, marking the worst performance in six months. A soft print may reinforce overnight comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, who said the central bank may cut rates again if needed, and put downward pressure on the Euro.

On the risk sentiment front, S&P 500 index futures are trading flat and offer little guidance on the trajectory of risk appetite. The US economic calendar offers very little in terms of scheduled event risk to drive price action, hinting a period of consolidation may settle over the markets as investors digest recent volatility.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)

1.0%

1.0%

-0.4%

22:45

NZD

Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

22:45

NZD

Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (1Q)

0.3%

0.5%

0.6%

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR)

0.4%

-

1.4%

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR)

-41

-

-45

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Construction Index (APR)

35.2

-

39

1:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (MAR)

307M

0M

-111M

1:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)

0.1%

1.8%

2.0%

1:30

AUD

House Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

2.6%

4.0%

2.5%

4:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

2.75%

3.00%

3.00%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (APR)

3.1% (A)

3.2%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)

3.1% (A)

3.1%

Medium

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Confidence (APR)

-5 (A)

-6

Low

6:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (APR)

49.8B (A)

48.7B

Low

6:45

EUR

French Trade Balance (MAR)

-4696M (A)

-5645M

Low

6:45

EUR

French Central Govt Balance (MAR)

-31.0B (A)

-27.1B

Low

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

-0.9% (A)

0.8%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

-2.5% (A)

-2.9%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)

-1.0% (A)

0.8%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)

-4.9% (A)

-2.5%

Low

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (APR)

433.6B (A)

438.3B

Low

7:59

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (APR)

14.8% (A)

5.9%

Low

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

-

2.3%

Medium

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

-

0.0%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3040

1.3127

GBPUSD

1.5507

1.5585

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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