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Euro Looks to German CPI to Set Stage for ECB Rate Decision

Euro Looks to German CPI to Set Stage for ECB Rate Decision

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro looks to Germany’s inflation data to set the stage for this week’s ECB rate decision, with a soft print likely to weigh on the single currency.

Talking Points

  • Euro Looks to German CPI Data to Set Stage for ECB Rate Decision
  • US Dollar Drops, Yen Outperforms as Asia Responds to US GDP Miss

April’s preliminary set of German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to hold at 1.4 percent, matching a 28-month low recorded in the prior month. Traders are likely to see the release as setting the stage for the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. With that in mind, a soft print stands to bolster calls for an interest rate cut and weigh on the Euro. Needless to say, the same dynamics are likely to push the single currency higher in the event of an upside surprise.

The US Dollar faced broad-based selling pressure in overnight trade as Asian markets took their turn to respond to Friday’s disappointing US GDP report, betting yet another soft data point will underpin continuity of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary stimulus efforts. The outcome likewise carried negative implications for risk sentiment, feeding fears about the implications of sluggish performance in the world’s largest economy for the global recovery at large. This sent the regional benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific stock index lower and helped the Japanese Yen outperform against its counterparts as the dour mood encouraged an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (APR)

0.2%

-

0.0%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (APR)

0.3%

-

0.3%

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (APR)

27

-

20

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (APR)

89.3

90.0

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (APR)

-0.91

-0.86

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (APR)

-13.5

-12.5

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (APR F)

-22.3

-22.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Services Confidence (APR)

-7.1

-6.7

Low

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (APR P)

-0.2%

0.5%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (APR P)

1.4%

1.4%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR P)

-0.1%

0.4%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR P)

1.7%

1.8%

High

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2998

1.3080

GBPUSD

1.5429

1.5544

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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