Forex Markets Look to G20 Summit to Guide Risk Sentiment Trends

2013-04-18 08:20:00

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Forex traders are focused on growth-themed rhetoric emerging from a G20 summit in Washington DC amid lingering fears about a faltering global recovery.

Talking Points

FX Markets Look to G20 Summit to Guide Risk Sentiment Trends
Pound Unlikely to Find Significant Volatility in UK Retail Sales Data

The spotlight is on a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, with traders watching the newswires for leaks from the draft communiqué due to emerge at the end of the two-day summit. Policymakers are likely to toe a familiar line on exchange rates, sounding off against competitive devaluation but falling short of offering any detailed measures or singling out specific offenders.

Comments on the state of the global recovery offer greater market-moving potential in the context of mounting concerns that erupted into large-scale risk aversion at the start of the week. Supportive rhetoric is likely to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts (and vice versa).

On the data front, UK Retail Sales figures headline the docket in European trading hours. Expectations call for the year-on-year growth rate to slow to 0.9 percent in March after yielding the largest increase in nearly five years in the prior month. The outcome has been amply foreshadowed by an analogous metric from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) last week and so seems unlikely to yield a lasting response from the British Pound absent a major deviation from expectations.

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Asia Session:

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:00	NZD	ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (MAR)	0.7%	-	1.8%
23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (MAR)	-362.4B	-522.2B	-779.5B
23:50	JPY	Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (¥)(MAR)	-922.0B	-934.5B	-1092.5B
23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (MAR)	5.5%	6.3%	11.9%
23:50	JPY	Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAR)	1.1%	0.2%	-2.9%
1:00	NZD	ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)	119.2	-	114.8
1:00	NZD	ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)	3.8%	-	-5.1%
1:30	AUD	RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$) (MAR)	577M	-	328M
1:30	AUD	RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (MAR)	71M	-	26M
1:30	AUD	RBA FX Transactions Govt. (A$) (MAR)	-624M	-	-345M
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence (1Q)	2	-	-5
2:00	CNY	Actual FDI (YoY) (MAR)	5.7%	1.9%	6.3%
4:00	JPY	Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)	48.4%	-	-10.9%
5:30	JPY	Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)	3.9%	-	0.3%
5:30	JPY	Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)	6.4%	-	2.5%

Euro Session:

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP/ACT	PREV	IMPACT
-	-	G20 FinMin and CB Governors’ Meeting – Day 1	-	-	High
8:30	EUR	Spain to Sell 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds	-	-	Low
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)	-0.6%	1.9%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)	0.9%	3.3%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)	-0.6%	2.1%	Low
8:30	GBP	Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)	-0.2%	2.6%	Low
9:00	EUR	Italian Current Account (€) (FEB)	-	-4607M	Low