Forex traders are focused on growth-themed rhetoric emerging from a G20 summit in Washington DC amid lingering fears about a faltering global recovery.
Talking Points
- FX Markets Look to G20 Summit to Guide Risk Sentiment Trends
- Pound Unlikely to Find Significant Volatility in UK Retail Sales Data
The spotlight is on a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, with traders watching the newswires for leaks from the draft communiqué due to emerge at the end of the two-day summit. Policymakers are likely to toe a familiar line on exchange rates, sounding off against competitive devaluation but falling short of offering any detailed measures or singling out specific offenders.
Comments on the state of the global recovery offer greater market-moving potential in the context of mounting concerns that erupted into large-scale risk aversion at the start of the week. Supportive rhetoric is likely to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts (and vice versa).
On the data front, UK Retail Sales figures headline the docket in European trading hours. Expectations call for the year-on-year growth rate to slow to 0.9 percent in March after yielding the largest increase in nearly five years in the prior month. The outcome has been amply foreshadowed by an analogous metric from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) last week and so seems unlikely to yield a lasting response from the British Pound absent a major deviation from expectations.
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Asia Session:
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
22:00 |
NZD |
ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (MAR) |
0.7% |
- |
1.8% |
23:50 |
JPY |
Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (MAR) |
-362.4B |
-522.2B |
-779.5B |
23:50 |
JPY |
Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (¥)(MAR) |
-922.0B |
-934.5B |
-1092.5B |
23:50 |
JPY |
Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (MAR) |
5.5% |
6.3% |
11.9% |
23:50 |
JPY |
Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAR) |
1.1% |
0.2% |
-2.9% |
1:00 |
NZD |
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR) |
119.2 |
- |
114.8 |
1:00 |
NZD |
ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR) |
3.8% |
- |
-5.1% |
1:30 |
AUD |
RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$) (MAR) |
577M |
- |
328M |
1:30 |
AUD |
RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (MAR) |
71M |
- |
26M |
1:30 |
AUD |
RBA FX Transactions Govt. (A$) (MAR) |
-624M |
- |
-345M |
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence (1Q) |
2 |
- |
-5 |
2:00 |
CNY |
Actual FDI (YoY) (MAR) |
5.7% |
1.9% |
6.3% |
4:00 |
JPY |
Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR) |
48.4% |
- |
-10.9% |
5:30 |
JPY |
Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR) |
3.9% |
- |
0.3% |
5:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR) |
6.4% |
- |
2.5% |
Euro Session:
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP/ACT |
PREV |
IMPACT |
- |
- |
G20 FinMin and CB Governors’ Meeting – Day 1 |
- |
- |
High |
8:30 |
EUR |
Spain to Sell 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds |
- |
- |
Low |
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR) |
-0.6% |
1.9% |
Medium |
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR) |
0.9% |
3.3% |
Medium |
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR) |
-0.6% |
2.1% |
Low |
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR) |
-0.2% |
2.6% |
Low |
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian Current Account (€) (FEB) |
- |
-4607M |
Low |
Critical Levels:
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
EURUSD |
1.2956 |
1.3154 |
GBPUSD |
1.5179 |
1.5335 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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