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Euro Reaction to German, EZ Data Hinges on Draghi Commentary

Euro Reaction to German, EZ Data Hinges on Draghi Commentary

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro will look to comments from ECB President Mario Draghi to guide forex traders’ interpretation of German ZEW and region-wide CPI data.

Talking Points

  • Euro Looks to Draghi Comments as Filter to Interpret German, EZ Data
  • British Pound Unlikely to Find Market-Moving Cues in Flat Inflation Reading
  • Dollar and Yen Retreat, Kiwi Outperforms as Markets Digest Risk Aversion

TheGerman ZEWSurvey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The report is expected to show sentiment deteriorated for the first time in five months. Meanwhile, year-on-year Eurozone CPI is seen ticking downward to 1.7 percent, the lowest since August 2010.

While such outcomes amplify the case for added ECB stimulus, ample evidence to this effect has already proven ineffective at swaying the central bank to step up easing over recent months. This means the Euro is unlikely to find a lasting driver in either data point absent clear-cut cues in favor of more accommodation from ECB President Mario Draghi when he speaks in the European Parliament later in the day.

Separately,UK Consumer Price Index figures are forecast to put the headline year-on-year inflation rate at 2.8 percent in March, unchanged from the prior month. A print in line with expectations is unlikely to offer an impetus for British Pound volatility in that it would mean relatively little for BOE policy expectations.

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen corrected lower in overnight trade as financial markets digested yesterday’s aggressive gains amid a sharp flare-up of market-wide risk aversion. The New Zealand Dollar outperformed, capitalizing on the most forgiving monetary policy outlook in the G10 FX space (according to priced-in expectations tracked by Credit Suisse) to add as much as 0.9 percent on average against its leading counterparts.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

AUD

RBA Policy Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)

-0.6%

-

-0.1%

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)

4.5%

-

9.4%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY)

-0.3% (A)

0.1%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM)

0.0% (A)

0.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

-0.2%

3.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

0.7%

2.5%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.8%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

2.0%

2.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

0.2%

0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

1.4%

1.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.7%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

2.8%

2.8%

High

8:30

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) (MAR)

2.3%

2.3%

High

8:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (MAR)

248.7

247.6

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

0.4%

0.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

3.3%

3.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (MAR)

3.2%

3.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

ONS House Price (YoY) (FEB)

2.4%

2.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (MAR)

1.2%

0.4%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (MAR)

1.7%

1.7%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (MAR)

1.4%

1.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (APR)

-

33.4

Medium

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Curr Situation) (APR)

14.0

13.6

High

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (APR)

41.0

48.5

High

13:00

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Speaks in European Parliament

-

-

High

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2999

1.3097

GBPUSD

1.5242

1.5357

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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