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US Dollar to Take Cues from Bernanke Comments, Alcoa Earnings

US Dollar to Take Cues from Bernanke Comments, Alcoa Earnings

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The US Dollar is looking toward comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and earnings from cycle-sensitive Alcoa Inc for direction cues.

Talking Points

  • Bernanke Commentary, Alcoa Inc Earnings in Focus to Start Trading Week
  • German Industrial Production Data Unlikely to Spark Strong Euro Volatility
  • Japanese Yen Selling Continues as Markets Digest New BOJ Stimulus Efforts

The spotlight is on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to start the trading week. The central bank chief will give the keynote speech at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Markets Conference, discussing financial stability. The address itself is likely to play second fiddle to the Q&A session that is to follow, with traders looking to any remarks referencing last week’s dismal US jobs report in the context of monetary policy to set the tone for FOMC minutes release on tap later in the week. A strongly dovish lean may weigh on the US Dollar. On the corporate earnings front, Alcoa Inc is due to report results, which may carry implications for sentiment trends.

German Industrial Production figures headline a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours. Output is expected to fall 0.9 percent in the year to February, marking the eighth consecutive month in negative territory. The result seems unlikely to stir much of a response from the Euro and financial markets at large however considering its limited implications for ECB monetary policy after last week’s status-quo interest rate decision.

The Japanese Yen sank in overnight trade, down as much as 1.5 percent against its leading counterparts, in what appeared to be continuation following last week’s unveiling of an aggressive new stimulus effort from the Bank of Japan. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index tested the highest levels since August 2008, likewise seeming to be responding to the prospect of added monetary support for economic growth.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (MAR)

-45

-

-44

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Construction Index (MAR)

39

-

45.6

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)

457.5B

637.4B

-364.8B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)

-0.1B

-62.0B

364.6B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (FEB)

-667.0B

-660.1B

-1479.3B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (FEB)

-47.0%

-59.1%

-19.9%

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)

-1.5%

-

3.0%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)

-20.0%

-

-11.8%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Curren (MAR)t

57.3

-

53.2

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)

57.5

-

57.7

6:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (MAR)

48.7B

-

43.7B

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production (YoY) (4Q)

1.7% (A)

2.5%

Low

8:30

EUR

Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (APR)

-17.3 (A)

-10.6

Low

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

0.0%

Medium

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)

-0.9%

-1.3%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2914

1.3053

GBPUSD

1.5237

1.5400

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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