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Dollar and Yen Rise on Haven Demand, US ISM Data Key Ahead

Dollar and Yen Rise on Haven Demand, US ISM Data Key Ahead

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The US Dollar and Yen rose on haven demand following disappointing Japanese and Chinese economic data. All eyes are now on the US ISM Manufacturing report.

Talking Points

  • Dollar, Yen Rise on Safe Haven Demand as Stocks Fall in Asian Trade
  • US ISM Manufacturing Data May Outperform, Boosting Risk Appetite

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade – adding as much as 0.3 and 0.5 percent respectively against their major counterparts – as stocks fell in Asia and drove demand for the standby safe haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell as much as 1 percent on the back of disappointing Japanese and Chinese economic data.

Japan’s Tankan survey showed large manufacturers’ sentiment improved less than expected in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the forward-looking Outlook gauge unexpectedly printed in negative territory for a third consecutive period while capital spending fell 2 percent, sinking bets for a 5 percent increase. China’s Manufacturing PMI gauge printed at 50.9 in March, showing factory-sector activity accelerated less than economists expected. Consensus forecasts argued for a reading at 51.2 prior to the release.

The European economic calendar is empty as key regional exchanges remain offline for the Easter Monday holiday. This shifts the spotlight to US ISM Manufacturing data, where expectations point to a slight slowdown in sector activity in March. US economic data has tended to outperform relative to expectations over the past month however according to data compiled by Citigroup, however. More of the same this time around may prove supportive for risk appetite, capping gains in the greenback as well as the Japanese unit.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)

1.42%

-

1.34%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q)

-8

-7

-12

23:50

JPY

Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (1Q)

6

8

4

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q)

-1

1

-10

23:50

JPY

Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (1Q)

9

11

3

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)

-2.0%

5.0%

6.8%

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

50.9

51.2

50.1

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

51.6

51.6

50.4

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-15.6%

-

-12.2%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

No Data

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2731

1.2840

GBPUSD

1.5219

1.5157

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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