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Yen May Rise While Euro Falls as Cyprus Fears Spark Liquidation

Yen May Rise While Euro Falls as Cyprus Fears Spark Liquidation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Japanese Yen may outperform through the end of the week amid broad-based liquidation of bets on risky assets amid Cyprus-linked worries.

Talking Points

  • German IFO Data Unlikely to Command Attention on Euro Crisis Fears
  • Markets May Go Into Liquidation Mode to Avoid Cyprus Weekend Risk
  • Japanese Yen Set to Outperform as Euro, Aussie Sink on Risk Aversion

The March edition of Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence tops an otherwise limited economic calendar in European hours. The headline Business Climate index is expected to inch higher for the fifth consecutive month, hitting the highest level in 11 months. The narrow improvement seems unlikely to command forex markets’ attention however as investors remain acutely focused on news-flow out of Cyprus.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has given the troubled island nation until Monday to reach agreement on an EU bailout plan before it cuts off Cypriot banks’ access to emergency funding facilities. Cyprus needs to raise €5.8 billion to unlock another €10 billion in rescue funds from the so-called “troika” (EU/ECB/IMF).

The outlines of such a deal remain clouded in uncertainty as policymakers scramble to find a new path forward after a plan to apply a levy on depositors foundered earlier in the week. Traders may be reluctant to hold significant exposure to risky assets over the weekend having been ambushed by Cyprus-linked event risk just five days ago. That suggests an unwinding of positions may play out through final hours of the week, weighing on the Euro and sentiment-geared currencies (notably the Australian Dollar) while pushing the Japanese Yen higher amid an unwinding of carry trades.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (FEB)

1.0%

-

-0.6% (R+)

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (FEB)

500

-

370 (R+)

23:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (JAN)

0.2%

-

-0.2% (R-)

1:35

CNY

MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator (MAR)

58.39

-

60.98

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:45

EUR

French Wages (QoQ) (4Q F)

-

0.2%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Own-Company Production Outlook (MAR)

-

2

Low

7:45

EUR

French Production Outlook Indicator (MAR)

-26

-36

Low

7:45

EUR

French Business Confidence Indicator (MAR)

91

90

Low

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (MAR)

107.8

107.4

Medium

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (MAR)

110.5

110.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Expectations (MAR)

105.0

104.6

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2867

1.2942

GBPUSD

1.5104

1.5225

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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