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Yen to Rise, Dollar to Fall if NFP and ISM Disappoint

Yen to Rise, Dollar to Fall if NFP and ISM Disappoint

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Japanese Yen may mount a recovery while the US Dollar comes under pressure if Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing data fall short of expectations.

Talking Points

  • Yen to Rise, US Dollar to Fall if US Economic Data Falls Short of Forecasts
  • Euro Soars to 14-Month High on Upgrade to January’s German, EZ PMIs
  • Aussie Dollar Sold After Chinese Manufacturing Growth Unexpectedly Slows

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the US economic calendar. The Employment report is expected to show Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 165,000 in January, compared with a 155,000 increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing gauge is expected to tick narrowly higher to 50.6 over the same period versus 50.2 in December.

Outcomes in line with expectations would fall closely in line with recent trends, offering little that has not been priced in already and implying limited scope for forex market volatility. US economic releases have increasingly underperformed analysts’ forecasts since late December however (according to data compiled by Citigroup). This seems to suggest market observers’ perceptions are rosier than they ought to be.

If this trend continues and brings disappointments on today’s releases, a breakout of risk aversion across financial markets amid worries about the implications of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy for global recovery at large. Such an outcome may finally offer a respite to the Japanese Yen as haven demand sends capital flows back into the beleaguered currency.

Interestingly, the previously safety-linked US Dollar could find itself on the defensive given such a scenario. Soft economic data – particularly of the labor-market variety – is likely to weigh against the possibility of an earlier end to the Fed’s QE efforts, punishing the greenback. A particularly sharp snap-back in the increasingly overextended USDJPY exchange rate may likewise send ripples of Dollar weakness elsewhere, amplifying pressure on the benchmark unit.

The Euro is outperforming in early European trade – touching a new 14-month high against the Dollar – after January’s German Manufacturing PMI reading was revised higher. The Australian Dollar is under pressure following disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released overnight. Official figures showed factory-sector growth unexpected slowed to the weakest in three months, threatening the outlook for the Asian giant’s demand for Australian mining exports.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (DEC)

0

-

550 (R-)

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JAN)

40.2

-

44.3

23:00

AUD

RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (JAN)

1.2%

-

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (DEC)

4.2%

4.1%

4.1%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (DEC)

0.82

0.8

0.8

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (DEC)

-0.7%

-0.2%

0.2%

0:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

0.2%

0.3%

0.6%

0:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

1.0%

1.2%

1.1%

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (JAN)

50.4

51.0

50.6

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (JAN)

52.3

52.0

51.5

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN)

-12.9%

-

-3.4%

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JAN)

-6.4%

-

-8.7% (R-)

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Price Index (JAN)

90.3

-

88.5 (R-)

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

CHF

SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JAN)

52.5 (A)

49.2 (R-)

Low

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (JAN)

47.8 (A)

46.7

Medium

8:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (JAN F)

42.9 (A)

42.9

Medium

8:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (JAN F)

49.8 (A)

48.8

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JAN F)

47.9 (A)

47.5

High

9:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC P)

11.2% (A)

11.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (JAN)

50.8 (A)

51.2 (R-)

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (DEC)

11.7% (A)

11.7% (R-)

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JAN)

2.0% (A)

2.2%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3493

1.3797

GBPUSD

1.5674

1.5927

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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