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Forex Analysis: Sideways Trade Likely Before Friday NFP, ISM Data

Forex Analysis: Sideways Trade Likely Before Friday NFP, ISM Data

2013-01-31 08:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Forex markets are likely to find themselves in consolidation mode as investors brace for Friday’s release of US Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM data.

Talking Points

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Fireworks in German Unemployment, Inflation Data
  • S&P 500 Futures Hint Risk Trends to Consolidate Before Friday’s Event Risk
  • Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Fall While Yen Gains as Stocks Drift Lower Overnight

January’s German Consumer Price Index figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. The headline inflation is expected to fall to 2 percent, down from 2.1 percent in the prior month. The print falls squarely in line with the medium-term trend average and seems unlikely to materially dislodge priced-in ECB monetary policy expectations (absent a major deviation from forecasts). As such, the data’s implications for the Euro are probably limited. The Unemployment report is likewise seen producing generally status-quo results.

The US data docket is also relatively lackluster, suggesting markets may settle into consolidation mode ahead of Friday’s burst of high-profile event risk as the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing metrics cross the wires. S&P 500 index futures are trading flat in late overnight trade, pointing to flat risk sentiment trends and reinforcing the case for a lull in volatility.

Forex markets traded mostly sideways in Asia. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly underperformed while the Yen advanced as regional stock exchanges probed slightly lower, weighing on the risk-anchored high yielders while buoying the safety-linked Japanese unit.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

20:00

NZD

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC P)

2.5%

4.1%

-1.4%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC P)

-7.8%

-5.6%

-5.5%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (DEC)

1.0%

-

0.4%

0:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

6.2%

-

3.0% (R-)

0:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JAN)

-26

-28

-29

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (DEC)

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (DEC)

3.6%

3.4%

3.5%

0:30

AUD

Export Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

-2.4%

-1.5%

-6.4%

0:30

AUD

Import Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

0.3%

0.4%

-2.4%

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (DEC)

-1.4%

-

-0.8% (R+)

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)

6.0%

-

5.5% (R+)

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (DEC)

-17.2%

-

-8.4%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (DEC)

10.0%

13.5%

10.3%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (DEC)

0.880M

0.895M

0.906M (R-)

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (DEC)

4.8%

-

-2.1%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

0.5% (A)

0.0% (R+)

Medium

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

0.0% (A)

-1.0%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

-1.7% (A)

0.6% (R-)

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)

-4.7% (A)

-0.6% (R+)

Medium

8:00

CHF

SNB Releases 4Q Currency Holdings

-

-

Medium

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)

6.9%

6.9%

High

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (JAN)

8K

3K

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (JAN P)

-0.4%

0.9%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (JAN P)

2.0%

2.1%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN P)

-0.5%

0.9%

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN P)

2.0%

2.0%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3504

1.3609

GBPUSD

1.5745

1.5872

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

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