Forex markets are likely to find themselves in consolidation mode as investors brace for Friday’s release of US Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM data.
Talking Points
- Euro Unlikely to Find Fireworks in German Unemployment, Inflation Data
- S&P 500 Futures Hint Risk Trends to Consolidate Before Friday’s Event Risk
- Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Fall While Yen Gains as Stocks Drift Lower Overnight
January’s German Consumer Price Index figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. The headline inflation is expected to fall to 2 percent, down from 2.1 percent in the prior month. The print falls squarely in line with the medium-term trend average and seems unlikely to materially dislodge priced-in ECB monetary policy expectations (absent a major deviation from forecasts). As such, the data’s implications for the Euro are probably limited. The Unemployment report is likewise seen producing generally status-quo results.
The US data docket is also relatively lackluster, suggesting markets may settle into consolidation mode ahead of Friday’s burst of high-profile event risk as the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing metrics cross the wires. S&P 500 index futures are trading flat in late overnight trade, pointing to flat risk sentiment trends and reinforcing the case for a lull in volatility.
Forex markets traded mostly sideways in Asia. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly underperformed while the Yen advanced as regional stock exchanges probed slightly lower, weighing on the risk-anchored high yielders while buoying the safety-linked Japanese unit.
Asia Session:
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
20:00 |
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC P) |
2.5% |
4.1% |
-1.4% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC P) |
-7.8% |
-5.6% |
-5.5% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (DEC) |
1.0% |
- |
0.4% |
|
0:00 |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC) |
6.2% |
- |
3.0% (R-) |
|
|
0:01 |
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JAN) |
-26 |
-28 |
-29 |
|
|
0:30 |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (DEC) |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
0:30 |
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (DEC) |
3.6% |
3.4% |
3.5% |
|
|
0:30 |
Export Price Index (QoQ) (4Q) |
-2.4% |
-1.5% |
-6.4% |
|
|
0:30 |
Import Price Index (QoQ) (4Q) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
-2.4% |
|
|
1:30 |
JPY |
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (DEC) |
-1.4% |
- |
-0.8% (R+) |
|
2:00 |
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC) |
6.0% |
- |
5.5% (R+) |
|
|
4:00 |
JPY |
Vehicle Production (YoY) (DEC) |
-17.2% |
- |
-8.4% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Housing Starts (YoY) (DEC) |
10.0% |
13.5% |
10.3% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Annualized Housing Starts (DEC) |
0.880M |
0.895M |
0.906M (R-) |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Construction Orders (YoY) (DEC) |
4.8% |
- |
-2.1% |
Euro Session:
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP/ACT |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
7:00 |
Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN) |
0.5% (A) |
0.0% (R+) |
Medium |
|
|
7:00 |
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) |
0.0% (A) |
-1.0% |
Medium |
|
|
7:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC) |
-1.7% (A) |
0.6% (R-) |
Medium |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC) |
-4.7% (A) |
-0.6% (R+) |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
SNB Releases 4Q Currency Holdings |
- |
- |
Medium |
|
|
8:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN) |
6.9% |
6.9% |
High |
|
8:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change (JAN) |
8K |
3K |
High |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (JAN P) |
-0.4% |
0.9% |
High |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) (JAN P) |
2.0% |
2.1% |
High |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN P) |
-0.5% |
0.9% |
Low |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN P) |
2.0% |
2.0% |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
1.3504 |
1.3609 |
|
|
1.5745 |
1.5872 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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