News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/dPE4AsJxqv
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into the new year? Find out with your free guide here: https://t.co/e7udCTJlmf #DailyfxGuides https://t.co/9bsQkh2WMF
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/DJccj3qiig
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/UK4E7wD6s8
  • Copper is on track to make a sixth consecutive monthly gain as prices inch towards its all-time high. The global backdrop remains supportive despite a short-term pause in the rally. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/STEYeIG042 https://t.co/R794ENkS3c
  • Retail trader signals still hint that the Dow Jones and S&P 500 may be at risk, placing the focus on year-long rising trendlines to see if dominant upside biases hold.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/lFpzIFNmzW https://t.co/FoHTLDJWJe
  • The path for the Japanese Yen seems to favor the downside looking at a majors-based index. USD/JPY may rise within its Ascending Channel, but there is some scope for a healthy correction. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/7XFJiCYYEM https://t.co/KfLyB2t1jP
  • The British Pound’s recent slip lower against its major counterparts may prove short-lived. Key levels to watch for GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP. Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/Y48cF2qi9M https://t.co/ia3Bgq0ZTp
  • Senate Democrats reach deal on jobless aid -BBG
  • The US Dollar faces its next key tests against ASEAN FX following gains in USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/THB. Are the breakouts losing momentum? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/joPnWIcxEN https://t.co/4QAlUyD98V
Forex Analysis: Dollar to Fall if US Officals Reach Fiscal Cliff Deal

Forex Analysis: Dollar to Fall if US Officals Reach Fiscal Cliff Deal

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The US Dollar is likely to weaken against most of its top counterparts if US lawmakers manage to secure a deal avoiding the fast-approaching “fiscal cliff”.

Talking Points

  • US Dollar to Decline if US Policymakers Secure “Fiscal Cliff” Accord
  • Japanese Yen Sold on Speculation Abe Government to Debase Currency

The spotlight remains on Washington, DC as financial markets return from the Christmas holiday, where US policymakers have a mere five days left to deliver a deal avoiding the so-called “fiscal cliff”, a set of tax hikes and government spending cuts due to trigger at the turn of the year. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the jolt of austerity will tip the US back into recession.

The markets’ baseline scenario appears to call for a last-minute compromise that avoids an immediate fiscal shock but falls short of setting US public finances on a sustainable long-term path. The emergence of a loose framework for negotiating a “grand bargain” in the future also seems to be baked in.

While a watered-down accord is undeniably better for market-wide risk appetite than none at all, follow-through is likely to be limited to a short-term advance reflecting the dissipation of uncertainty. Indeed, with investors’ forecasts validated, the impetus for speculation evaporates.

For forex markets, a fiscal cliff deal is likely to broadly weigh on the US Dollar amid ebbing safe-haven demand for the benchmark currency. A lone exception may be found in the greenback’s pairing with the Yen, where the focus remains on domestic policy. Indeed, the Japanese unit hit a 20-month low against its top counterparts overnight amid speculation incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will push to sharply weaken the currency in a bid to beat deflation.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

CNY

Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (NOV)

3.0%

-

0.5%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (NOV)

-8.4%

-

-12.4%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (NOV)

10.3%

10.7%

25.2%

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (NOV)

-2.1%

-13.8%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (NOV)

0.907M

0.911M

0.978M

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (NOV)

1.23 (A)

1.30

Low

7:45

EUR

French Consumer Confidence Indicator (DEC)

86 (A)

84

Low

7:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (NOV) (MoM)

-0.5% (A)

0.5%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (NOV) (YoY)

1.9% (A)

2.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Business Confidence (DEC)

88.8

88.5

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Economic Sentiment (DEC)

-

76.4

Low

9:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (NOV)

34500

33039

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3178

1.3300

GBPUSD

1.6108

1.6170

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES