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Forex Analysis: SNB Likely to Remain on Hold, EU Summit Begins

Forex Analysis: SNB Likely to Remain on Hold, EU Summit Begins

2012-12-13 06:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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The Swiss National Bank is likely to keep its monetary policy setting unchanged while EU leaders begin critical a two-day summit in Brussels.

Talking Points

  • SNB Likely to Keep Rates, EURCHF Floor Unchanged at Policy Meeting
  • EU Leaders Summit Begins, Joint Deposit Insurance Scheme Now in Focus
  • Japanese Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rally after US Fed Expands Stimulus

A monetary policy announcement from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Thomas Jordan and company are expected to keep the target interest rate unchanged in a 0.0-0.25 percent range and maintain the EURCHF floor at 1.20, adding a familiar admonition to enforce the barrier with the “utmost determination”.

Economic performance noticeably improved in the third quarter while the pace deflation registered effectively in line with the SNB’s -0.5 percent projection over the same period. Eurozone debt crisis fears – a key source of downward pressure on the exchange rate – have also moderated since the last SNB meeting, with Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields materially lower. That suggests the central may see little urgency in acting now.

In the meantime, EU Leaders are due to begin a two-day summit. Policymakers will tackle a host of other thorny issues dealing with deepening the monetary union on the basis of President Herman Van Rompuy’s “building blocks” proposal. This month’s sit-down has long been billed as the time for final agreements to emerge after months of haggling, so traders will look for game-changing headlines to come across the wires. An agreement on handing over bank regulation to the ECB has already emerged, with the creation of a region-wide deposit insurance scheme as the remaining key near-term deliverable.

The Japanese Yen slumped in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.5 percent against its leading counterparts as regional stock exchanges pushed higher and dented haven demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific added 0.3 percent after the Federal Reserve expanded stimulus efforts, lifting hopes for a recovery in US demand for exports.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (NOV)

-0.8%

-

-0.9% (R-)

21:30

NZD

Business NZ PMI (NOV)

48.8

-

50.3 (R-)

21:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (NOV)

-0.8%

-

-0.6%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (DEC)

0.5%

-

3.3%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (DEC)

114.7

-

114.1

0:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (DEC)

1.8%

-

2.2%

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (NOV)

0.0%

-

-2.5%

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV)

9.7%

-

8.6%

5:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (NOV)

-

-

-14.4%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

SECO December 2012 Economic Forecasts (DEC)

-

-

Medium

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (NOV)

-0.3%

-0.1%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (NOV)

1.0%

0.4%

Medium

8:30

CHF

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (DEC 13)

0.0%

0.0%

High

9:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Monthly Report (DEC)

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3014

1.3157

GBPUSD

1.6062

1.6282

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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